Taiwan: Why This Island Is at the Center of Global Tensions

The oldest known traces of humans living on what 

would later become Taiwan date back around 30,000 years. At the time, the world is in the midst 

of an ice age, sea levels are approximately 120 meters lower than today, and the territory is connected to the mainland. Twelve thousand years later, the melting of the ice begins, causing sea levels to rise, and Taiwan becomes an island. Around the 5th millennium BC, proto-Austronesian populations, probably originating along the East Asian coastline, settle on the island and develop their own culture. Recent genetic and linguistic studies suggest that it was from there that Austronesian groups later spread across Southeast Asia and into the islands of the Pacific. From the 3rd century AD onwards, Chinese sources begin to mention the island, although without showing much interest in it. Only fishermen and merchants from Fujian frequent the Penghu Islands and the coasts of Taiwan. They notably purchase deer hides from indigenous populations. The island also attracts Japanese 

merchants and pirates, fostering smuggling. In 1542, Portuguese sailors sight the island and nickname it ‘Ilha Formosa,’ meaning ‘the beautiful island.’ The name Formosa will then be used by Europeans for several centuries. At the beginning of the 17th century, the Dutch become the first Europeans to take an interest in the island, which has the potential to become a trading base with China and Japan. In the south, they build Fort Zeelandia, in an area already populated by Chinese settlers from Fujian. The Spanish, already present in the nearby Philippines, pursue the same objective, and establish Spanish Formosa in the far north of the island. In the south, the Dutch exploit the island’s resources and develop agriculture, encouraging many Chinese to settle there to cultivate the land. At the same time, they Christianize local populations and build schools, even inventing a romanized writing system for some local languages. The colony quickly becomes prosperous through taxation, and in 1642, the Dutch expel the Spanish from the island. In China, the Ming dynasty is overthrown by the Manchu-led Qing dynasty coming from the north. However, many Ming loyalists 

resist the new regime, including Koxinga, a powerful military leader who goes into exile on Taiwan with a large fleet. He expels the Dutch and establishes the Kingdom of Tungning, which attracts many Ming refugees. In order to isolate this rebellious island, the Qing make a radical 

decision by ordering the evacuation of a large portion of the Chinese coastline. Populations are forced to move 15 to 25 kilometers inland, their homes are burned, and their boats are destroyed. Anyone approaching the coastline risks execution. Isolated, the Kingdom of Tungning compensates for supply shortages by further developing agriculture. But in 1683, a powerful Qing fleet lands on the island and puts an end to the kingdom. Ming soldiers are sent back to the mainland, and the island is officially closed to any new migration. Farmers, fishermen, and merchants already present are allowed to stay, but in order to avoid conflicts with indigenous populations, the new Qing administration bans access to the mountainous regions in the center and east of the island. At the end of the 18th century, migration restrictions are lifted, and large numbers of Chinese settlers arrive. Indigenous populations are either assimilated, or pushed back into the eastern mountainous regions. By 1860, around two million Chinese live on the island. In 1867, an American merchant ship runs aground on the eastern coast, and its crew is killed by warriors of the Paiwan tribe. The United States launches a punitive expedition, which fails under difficult conditions. Four years later, another ship, this time from the neighboring Ryukyu Kingdom, also runs aground, and its sailors meet the same fate. Japan, presenting itself as the protector of the Ryukyu Kingdom and undergoing rapid industrial, economic, and military development, takes advantage of its rising power to demand reparations from the Qing. The latter refuse, as their control 

over indigenous populations is limited. Japan then launches its own punitive expedition. Fearing a Japanese foothold on the island, the Qing attempt to subdue the indigenous populations, but fail. Meanwhile, Japan strengthens its influence over the Ryukyu Islands, eventually taking control of them. A few years later, China is at war with France, which lands troops in the north of the island. After several months of fighting, the French forces are expelled. But faced with growing foreign threats, the Qing now decide to consolidate their control over the entire island, which officially becomes a full-fledged Chinese province, with its own administration distinct from that of Fujian. Fortifications are built, and the island is modernized, notably with the construction of its first railway. In 1894, war breaks out between China and Japan, initially over control of Korea. Japan emerges victorious, and gains control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands. Part of the population resists by proclaiming the Republic of Formosa, loyal to the Qing. But the Qing, weakened, refuse to support the project, in order to avoid another war. Five months later, Japanese forces complete their total takeover of the island. Japan then attempts to subdue 

the island’s hostile population, while simultaneously developing its 

industry, agriculture, and the economy. Roads and railways, as well as electrical 

and telecommunications networks, are built. On the mainland, the Qing Empire collapses, and 

is replaced by the Republic of China. However, the new power struggles to assert its authority, and the country fragments into territories controlled by warlords. From Guangzhou, Chiang Kai-shek, leading the army of the Nationalist Kuomintang party, launches a major expedition to 

the north, which, after two years of fighting, captures Beijing. A still-fragile centralized power is formed around the Kuomintang, which makes Nanjing its capital and adopts a new flag. In 1930, in Taiwan, more than one hundred Japanese are killed by members of the Seediq tribe. The Japanese army responds violently, massacring many indigenous people, and reinforcing its total control over the island. The following year, taking advantage of instability in China, notably due to a conflict between the Kuomintang and the Communists, Japan seizes Manchuria, an industrial region rich in resources, in order to establishes a buffer state under its control. At the same time, Japan accelerates the assimilation of the Taiwanese population by imposing the Japanese language and culture, including traditional clothing, and the Japanization of names. In 1937, Japan launches a new attack against China, with the aim of dominating and controlling strategic areas of the country. Chiang Kai-shek’s troops retreat to Chongqing which becomes the provisional capital. Meanwhile, in the north, Mao Zedong’s Communist forces wage guerrilla warfare against the Japanese. The conflict drags on, and Taiwan becomes a major strategic base for Japan. In December 1941, following the attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States prepares its counteroffensive in the Pacific, recognizing the Republic of China as an ally. In 1943, Chiang Kai-shek takes part in the Cairo Conference with Roosevelt and Churchill. It is notably decided that after its defeat, Japan will have to return Taiwan and the Penghu Islands to China. In 1945, the atomic bombings and the beginning of the Soviet invasion of Japan force the country to surrender. On October 25th, 1945, Japanese troops hand Taiwan over to the Chinese forces of the Kuomintang. While much of the population initially welcomes them as liberators, disillusionment quickly follows. Taiwanese are excluded from important positions, property is confiscated, and the island’s 

wealth is redirected to the mainland, notably to finance the renewed war 

against the Communists. In 1947, in the streets of Taipei, police beat a young woman selling contraband cigarettes, then shoot a man who attempts to defend her. The next day, on February 28th, protests erupt across the island. The Kuomintang responds violently, killing between 10,000 and 30,000 people over the course of three months. This event marks the beginning of a harsh repression against the local elite, and anyone suspected of political opposition. Over the following decades, around 140,000 people will be imprisoned, and between 3,000 and 4,000 are likely executed. In 1949, the Communists prevail on the Chinese mainland, forcing Chiang Kai-shek to retreat to Taiwan with nearly two million people, mainly soldiers. The island’s population thus increases from 4.5 to 6.5 million inhabitants. In Beijing, Mao Zedong proclaims the People’s Republic of China, with the objective to take control of Taiwan, which it considers a rebellious province. In Taiwan, Taipei becomes the provisional capital of the Republic of China, whose goal remains the reconquest of the mainland. But for Chiang Kai-shek, the priority is to ensure survival on the island. He establishes an authoritarian one-party regime under martial law. Mandarin becomes the only official language, to the detriment of local languages, especially Taiwanese, the most widely spoken language on the island, derived from Minnan, spoken in Fujian. At first, the United States shows little interest in this conflict. But the situation changes in 1950 with North Korea’s invasion of South Korea. U.S. President Harry Truman announces that his country will intervene militarily under the auspices of the United Nations, and that he will deploy a major naval fleet to Taiwan to prevent any Communist invasion. But the Kuomintang also controls smaller islands very close to the mainland. To defend them, it fortifies the islands and stations troops there. The People’s Republic of China responds by subjecting them 

to sustained artillery bombardment. In December 1954, the United States signs a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Republic of China to deter any offensive. But this does not prevent the People’s Republic of China from landing troops and seizing the Yijiangshan Islands and the Tachen Archipelago. The United States then raises the possibility of using nuclear weapons, which helps calm the situation and leads to a ceasefire. A few years later, Mao Zedong launches a new offensive, this time against the islands of Quemoy and Matsu. Once again, a major U.S. naval force is deployed. In the Soviet Union, Khrushchev officially supports his Chinese ally, but, in order to avoid escalation, makes it clear that he will not intervene. The offensive is halted and marks the beginning of the Sino-Soviet split. At the same time, Mao Zedong’s policy of forced collectivization triggers a massive famine. No official death toll was ever released, but independent estimates place the number of victims between 15 and 50 million. This disaster contributes to a period of retreat and isolation. Over time, it becomes increasingly clear that the Republic of China will not regain control of the mainland. Nevertheless, it remains the sole representative of China at the United Nations, even holding a permanent seat on the Security Council. In 1971, the organization adopts a resolution replacing the representatives of the Republic of China with those of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing then takes advantage of its new international status to impose recognition of its “One China” policy on countries wishing to establish diplomatic and commercial relations, which requires breaking ties with Taipei. This policy proves effective, gradually isolating the Republic of China. As a result, it can no longer compete in the Olympic Games under its own name, and must instead participate as “Chinese Taipei,” using a neutral flag. On his side, the United States takes advantage of the growing tensions between China and the USSR, to move closer to Beijing in order to 

isolate Moscow. It officially ends its diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, revoking the previously signed agreements, but establishes new ones with what it 

now refers to as the people of Taiwan, continuing in particular to provide defensive weapons. The United States no longer recognizes the Republic of China, nor does it support Taiwan’s independence, while at the same time remaining opposed to its annexation by the People’s Republic of China, now the sole diplomatic representative of China. In Taipei, after Chiang Kai-shek’s death in 1975, his son Chiang Ching-kuo succeeds him. In Beijing, preparations begin for negotiations with the United Kingdom over Hong Kong’s return. China plans to establish a special status granting greater autonomy to the territory, and proposes the same arrangement to Taipei in exchange for peaceful reunification, but this is rejected. Chiang Ching-kuo, aware that reconquering the mainland is no longer an option, now focuses on Taiwan’s survival. He pursues rapid economic development by attracting international companies, and adopts a policy of appeasement, lifting martial law in 1987. He dies the following year and is replaced by Lee Teng-hui, who continues his policies, and even issues official apologies on behalf of the Kuomintang for the February 28th incident. In 1991, Lee officially ends the state of war with Beijing, abandoning the goal of reconquest, but without any peace treaty being signed. He then authorizes a meeting between representatives of both sides in Hong Kong, still under British administration. No official document is signed, but a compromise emerges around the idea of one China, with different interpretations. In 1994, the Taiwanese population is surveyed for the first time on the island’s status. The status quo clearly prevails, mainly with the idea of deciding later, while both unification with China and direct independence receive very little support. In 1995, during an officially private 

visit to the United States, Lee Teng-hui states that Taiwan is engaged in a peaceful transition toward democracy. China, angered by this visit and statement, responds by firing 

missiles into the Taiwan Strait. Once again, the United States deploys a powerful naval force to end the crisis. The following year, the first presidential elections are held and are largely won by Lee Teng-hui. In 1997, Hong Kong is handed back to 

China, with broad autonomy for the next fifty years. Once again, China proposes applying the same model to Taiwan. However, on his side, Lee Teng-hui asserts that relations between China and Taiwan should instead be considered state-to-state. But the United States intervenes, calling for the preservation of the status quo, rather than pursuing formal independence. In 2000, following new elections, the Kuomintang is excluded from power for the first time, replaced by the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, with Chen Shui-bian as president. He authorizes the teaching of Taiwanese and indigenous languages in schools. In 2005, Beijing adopts an Anti-Secession Law, promoting unification with Taiwan, and stating that force will be used in the event of a declaration of independence, or if no peaceful solution can be found. But aware of its military shortcomings, China then begins to invest massively in the development of its armed forces, particularly its navy. In 2008, the Kuomintang returns to power. The new president, Ma Ying-jeou, pledges no unification, no independence, and no use of force. He establishes closer relations with Beijing by opening air and maritime links, and facilitating trade. Tensions ease, and he is re-elected in 2012. However, his rapprochement policy ultimately triggers a protest movement that weakens the Kuomintang, benefiting the DPP, which returns to power in 2016, with Tsai Ing-wen as the island’s first female president. She is generally favorable to independence, but prioritizes 

dialogue with China over confrontation. She focuses on international diplomacy, and moves closer to Japan, despite a dispute over the Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyutai in Taiwan, and Diaoyu in China, which also claims them. In 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping 

addresses the Taiwanese people, stating that reunification is inevitable 

under the “one country, two systems” model. Tsai Ing-wen responds that Taiwan and the majority of its population reject this principle. In Hong Kong, a man is arrested for the murder of his partner, committed during a trip to Taipei. Due to the legal vacuum between 

the two territories, extradition is not possible. The Hong Kong government then proposes a special law allowing extraditions to Taiwan and to mainland China. Protests erupt against it, fearing it could allow the extradition of political opponents to China. The bill is withdrawn, and although the murderer has confessed, he is neither extradited to Taiwan nor tried for the crime. In Taiwan, these events deepen mistrust toward China. Tsai Ing-wen then adopts a law aimed at preventing Chinese interference on the island, notably through lobbying or political donations. In 2020, Beijing imposes a law on Hong Kong that allows it to now intervene directly and imprison anyone accused of subversion, secession, or collusion with foreign powers. Article 38 specifies that the law also applies to individuals who do not hold Chinese nationality. Tsai Ing-wen denounces the end of the “one country, two systems” model in Hong Kong. For many Taiwanese, these events demonstrate that accepting this model with China would endanger the island’s democratic system. In a tense international context following the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives visits Taipei, signaling what appears to be a shift in the U.S. position. Angered, China, now possessing the world’s largest navy in terms of the number of vessels, responds by intensifying its military exercises. The country simulates a maritime blockade of the island, amphibious landings, and trains its soldiers in urban combat, within mock Taiwanese neighborhoods built inland. China also practices targeting foreign military vessels. In 2024, tensions rise further when newly elected President Lai Ching-te transits through Hawaii during an official visit to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are among the last twelve countries to officially recognize Taiwan. In practice, however, many countries maintain unofficial relations with Taipei through representative offices. In 2025, the U.S. economy is driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence. Major technology companies build enormous data centers, purchasing graphics processors designed by Nvidia, but manufactured by TSMC, a Taiwanese company and global leader that alone produces around 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips. Donald Trump therefore pressures for these factories to be relocated to the 

United States, while some officials have already suggested the possibility of destroying them should the island fall under Chinese control. Officially, no peace treaty has ended 

the Chinese Civil War. For Beijing, Taiwan therefore remains a rebellious province, and accepting its independence would mean renouncing the national unity inherited from the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Moreover, China is geographically constrained at sea by the island chains formed by Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Shallow waters make submarine movements easier to detect. Controlling Taiwan would provide access to the Pacific Ocean, 

and could challenge U.S. maritime dominance. Taiwan, for its part, has widened the 

gap with mainland China by transitioning peacefully from a military dictatorship to one of the most advanced democracies in the world, becoming the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage. Taiwanese identity has evolved, and an increasing number of residents express support for independence, while being aware that it would most likely lead to war. Taiwan is therefore transforming itself into a true fortress, protecting the few beaches suitable for landings, and acquiring cutting-edge military equipment. But aware that it cannot match China’s military power, the island relies on asymmetric defense through the dispersion of thousands of light weapons across its territory, in order to slow down and complicate any invasion as much as possible. At the same time, Taipei relies on diplomacy to gain greater international recognition, drawing closer in particular to U.S. allies in the region. In this context, a Chinese offensive could lead to a large-scale conflict, with some analysts believing that China could be ready to invade Taiwan militarily in 2027, the centenary year of the People’s Liberation Army.