This MVP Race Makes No Sense

I've got a question. Is a player averaging a near 30point triple double worthy of an MVP? What about a player having one of the greatest defensive seasons of all time? Or how about a player averaging 34 points who put up 40 a game for an entire month? Is he worthy of the award? Or what about a player who is having the most efficient 30piece in the history of the NBA on his way to 65 wins? Now, the answer is pretty simple. All of these seasons are worthy of an MVP. But what if all of these seasons are happening at the same time? Four players, four legitimate cases being made, and only one award. Who should be the NBA's most valuable player this season? Well, that depends on who you ask and what they value. Today's video is sponsored by Chime, a financial app that helps you save more and manage your money better. With Chime, saving has never been easier. A lot of people have money sitting in a regular savings account earning almost nothing. 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Or you can scan the QR code on the screen. It only takes a few minutes to sign up and you deserve to keep more of your money and earn on it. Winning the MVP usually means putting up numbers that jump off the stat sheet. It's not the only thing that matters, but big eyepopping box scores have almost become a prerequisite for the MVP award. And right now, there's two players who don't just stand out this season, they stand out amongst every season. If we just look at raw box score numbers, Joic and Luca are gapping the entire league this season. Their numbers have gotten so absurd that they make Shay's 314 and seven look kind of normal. Add up their perame points, rebounds, and assists. And Joic and Luca are having two of the top five most productive seasons in modern NBA history. Joic joining the 50 club, an exclusive group that was previously only occupied by 2017 MVP Russell Westbrook. 2025 Joic and 2024 Luca. But if sheer numbers alone guaranteed a player an MVP, then Joic would have won the award in 2025 and Luca would have won it in 2024. So would James Harden in 2019, Luca again in 2023, and LeBron in 2018. As box score numbers continue to climb across the NBA, so does the frequency of these historically significant seasons. In fact, 17 of the last 20 most productive seasons in modern NBA history have all came in just the last 8 years. Seasons like this that were once not only warrant of an MVP, but were historic milestones are now becoming an annual occasion for players like Jokic, Luca, and Giannis. And the more often we see these shockingly large numbers, the more the shock wears off. It wasn't long ago when averaging a triple double all but guaranteed Russell Westbrook an MVP as a six seed. But in today's NBA, averaging a near 30point triple double might not even land you in the top three spots for the MVP. Unlike other superstars around the league who fill the stat sheet with historic volume, Shay Gilis Alexander has maintained his spot as the MVP favorite with a season of record-breaking efficiency and consistency all while spearheading the best team in the league. According to ESPN's net point stat, Sheay has only had five bad games all season. In fact, there has only been one season in the history of the league where a guard was more efficient than Sheay at scoring the ball while averaging at least 30 a game, and it was by the greatest shooter of all time, having the greatest season of his career. But to say Sheay has simply been efficient this season would be an understatement. So far this season, Sheay is scoring 1.6 six points every time he shoots the ball. That is the most points per shot by any volumes scoring guard in the history of the NBA. 2026 Shay Gilis Alexander isn't having one of the most efficient seasons by a guard. He is having the most efficient season of all time. Now, when stacked up against these three, Victor Webbyama's numbers pale in comparison. A lot of his value coming on the defensive side of the ball. And I don't think you'll find any never minds on the stat sheet, but Victor has been on a minutes restriction all year. If we standardize these numbers on a per 75 basis, then you can really see just how much Wimi is impacting the game every time he's on the court. With box score numbers that match these other candidates, even as a player who doesn't favor offense, however, earning the title as the most valuable player in basketball requires value that goes far beyond the box score. But even looking past the raw numbers doesn't make this decision any easier. Who is the most valuable player this season? That depends on what you value. In terms of estimated plus minus, it is Shea who not only has a lead on the rest of the league, he has the third highest single season EPM of any player this century, only trailing 2019 MVP James Harden and 2016 MVP Steph Curry. If we look at crafted plus minus, it's Nicole Joic who reigns as the best player in the league this season, followed by Weby and Shay. And if we look at daily plus minus, it is Joic once again who tops the league with a sizable lead on everyone else. If these all-in-one advanced metrics told us everything, Nicole Joic would be walking away this season with his fourth MVP. Fortunately, for the rest of the field, the value a player provides for his team cannot be boiled down to one simple number. According to preseason odds, here are the projected number of wins each team was expected to finish with this season. Now, these projections can be off for a number of reasons. teams dealing with injuries, unexpected leaps from young players, and of course, the individual impact of an MVP level player. Coming into the season, the Denver Nuggets were projected to win 54 games. Right now, they are on pace for about 52. The Thunder were projected to finish with about 63 wins, a total they're on pace to surpass by two wins. The Lakers were projected to win 47 games, and they're currently on pace for 53. But it is the Spurs who have completely blown away expectations this season. Preseason odds had them winning 45 games this year. They are currently on pace for 62 wins, exceeding projections by 17 wins. If you're looking for who provides the most value, it might be the guy who's transformed the Spurs from playoff hopefuls into title contenders. But looking at the MVP from this angle assigns individual value to team success. And as we all know, despite the MVP being an individual ward, more often than not, the perception of a player's value is heavily influenced by the success of their team. After all, if you are truly the most valuable player in basketball, you should be elevating your team to title contention. But rather than looking at team success, let's look at the individual impact these players have on their team. Dunks and Threes has a metric called estimated wins that takes the quality of play from any given player plus the minutes they've played throughout the season to get the estimated number of wins they've contributed to their team's total. Our four MVP candidates being the top four players in the league this season in estimated wins with 13.8, 14.6, 16, and 18. Nicole Joic is solely responsible for a third of the Nuggets wins, but it is Sha Gilis Alexander who has contributed the most wins to his team this season. But arguably the most accurate way to assess a player's value is to measure how well their team performs when they're on the court versus when they're off the court. How much does a player's presence directly impact their team? Here are the top 30 players in the league this season and their team's net rating when they're off the court. from the Celtics who are firing on all cylinders even without Jaylen Brown on the court this season to the Jazz who are on the verge of relegation without Lorie Markinan on the court and now here is the effect these stars have on their team when they're on the court with the four most impactful players in the league this season being Kauaii Joic Giannis and WBY with the highest net on off in the entire league of plus 17 this means the Spurs are 17 points better per 100 possessions with WBY on the court. But this stat also reveals another key factor in the MVP race. We often judge a player's impact on how well their team is playing. This has been a point of contention with the MVP award for years. MVPs go to players on good teams with top seats, and rightfully so. But what if a player has MVP level value, but they're on a bad team? With BAM Adabio on the court, the Heat have a plus 7.8 an eight net rating, one of the highest in the entire NBA. Oncourt impact, that is the difference between the Heat being one of the worst teams in the league and merely the 10th seed. Same goes for Giannis and Kauaii. MVP caliber seasons stifled by injuries and teams that are absolutely lost without them. Purely looking at a team's results, like wins or seating, ignores how great some of these players have to play just to keep their team competitive. With that being said, the MVP award has always valued turning good teams into great teams over turning bad teams into average teams. And with that being the case, here are our four MVP front runners and the impact they are having on their teams. If you're looking for a player who impacts the game more than anyone else while pushing their team into great territory, then that player is clearly Victor Webbyama, who is head and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of the impact his presence has on his team. Now, it's important to note that the onoff metric doesn't measure how well an individual player is playing, but rather how well a team is playing while that individual is on the court. So, what if we look at this the other way around? What if we directly measure a player's individual impact and how that affects their team success? This is ESPN analytics net point stat and it divides credit and blame to each player on the court for every play of the game to measure the impact of each individual player. The higher the total net points, the more that player has contributed to their team's wins throughout the course of a season. In fact, the metric is so indicative of a player's value that ESPN literally calls it their MVP stat. For example, last year's two MVP finalists, Sha Gilgis Alexander and Nicole Joic, finished the 2025 season within nine net points of each other. The next closest player was Tyrese Hallebertton with about half as many. If you want to know why last year's MVP race was so historic and so close, well, you're looking at it. But this year, the results of an entire season of basketball have turned out much different. There's no race in this MVP stat. There's no back and forth at the top of the leaderboard. There's no battle for the number one spot. It's just one guy way ahead of everyone else. Who is truly the most valuable player in the NBA? Well, that all depends on who you're asking and what they value. With just a couple weeks left in the season, the MVP race has become so close that there is no clear consensus on who the actual most valuable player in the league is. One source will say it's Luca, another will say it's WMY, and another will tell you it's Shay. According to Basketball References MVP tracker, it is Nicole Joic who has a firm grasp on the top spot with a 60% chance of winning the MVP. Ask the fans who they think should be the MVP, and you'll get a completely different answer. A couple weeks ago, NBA Central on Twitter asked fans who is the NBA's most valuable player. The options being Sheay, Luca, WBY, or Jaylen Brown. Within days, nearly 76,000 fans casted their votes and running away with over 62% of all the votes as the clear winner was Luca Donuch. the result of a late season surge by Luca, averaging nearly 40 points a game for an entire month and efforts that slingshotted him up to second place on the MVP ladder. Unfortunately, it's not the fans who get to vote for this award. It's the media. And for them, there has been one clear-cut leader throughout the entire season. Recently, the NBA did its annual MVP straw poll, a survey asking a panel of 100 media members who they think this season's MVP is. the results. Finishing in fifth was Luca Donuch, who received zero first place votes. In fourth was Victor Webbyama. In third was Cade Cunningham. In second was Nicole Joic. And with a resounding 78 of the 100 first place votes was Sha Gilis Alexander. Now, this poll was conducted back on February 20th, two full months before the end of the season, and a lot can and has changed over that time. But in 2025, the same media straw poll was conducted around the same time and they accurately picked the MVP last season. They also accurately picked the MVP in 2024 and in 2023 and in 2022 and in every single season since the introduction of this mid-season MVP poll in 2016. Over the course of the entire season, nine different players have slid in and out of the MVP leaderboard from Luca and Kade to Brunson and Jaylen Brown. But the first half of the season was all Nicole Joic, dominating the number one spot for 10 consecutive weeks. It wasn't until an injury sidelined him for a month when Sheay Gilis Alexander snagged the top spot and held on to it in what some people described as a runaway victory. At least it was up until last week when for the first time in his young career, Victor Webbyama grabbed the top spot as the MVP front runner. The biggest catalyst in Victor's climb to the number one spot not necessarily being his play on the court, which has been strong and consistent throughout the entire season. It's what he said off the court. >> Three arguments. >> Yeah. My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race. I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league. Second argument would be we almost swept OKC in the season and we dominated him. My third argument would be that offense impact is not just sports. Immediately after this interview, Wimy's odds to win MVP shot up from plus,900 to plus 225, pushing Luca into the third spot and turning this late season battle, at least on paper, into a twoman race. If the MVP strictly went to the best player on the best team, then for the same reason he won it last season, Sheay Gilgis Alexander would be crowned as the league's most valuable player. If the award went to the player who has the largest impact on his team, then Victor Webinyama would become the youngest MVP in the history of the league. If the award was for the most dominant player in the league, Nicole Joic would be a fourtime MVP by the end of the season. And if the fans had a say in it, Luca Donuch would be walking away as the league's most valuable player. With two weeks left in the season, the MVP race has grown closer than it's ever been. And with four players who all have a legitimate case for the award, only one can earn the title as the NBA's most valuable player.