I'm changing investment strategy! This how I aim to hang on to profits if stocks rise or fall.

Clive Thompson7,020 words

Full Transcript

Hello dear friends. My name is Clive Thompson. Today I came out to do this video. Uh and I hoped it wouldn't rain, but look, it is raining. You can see the rain in the uh uh like the fountain area behind me. Just show you that. Um luckily I brought my umbrella with me. So today I'm going to be talking about how you can make money when the stock market goes up and how you can make money when it goes down with exactly the same investment. In other words, heads you win, tails you win. Now I'm going to divide this video up into several parts. Um first of all, so it's all going to be in one go, but uh it gets a little bit more complicated at the end for those who are sophisticated. Um so let's talk about first of all, what am I doing? As you probably know, I've spoken in some recent videos about how the stock market seems to be getting relatively overvalued. Uh, now I don't mean extremely overvalued. This is, you know, we we're not very different from the situation when in 1996 Alan Greenspan talked about what's called excessive exuberance. Uh, those words resonated around the world when he said the stock markets are getting a bit frothy. There's a lot of excessive exuberance. people are buying stocks when they shouldn't because they're getting too excited. Um 1996, uh stocks were a little bit overvalued at the time like they are today. But those who sold out on that ex uh on that um announcement by Alan Greenspan then watched stocks continue to rise for the next two and a half years uh and ultimately they rose by 280%. So they were nearly 290% they were nearly four times as expensive four years later four times the price four three two years later as when he said those words. So it would have been a mistake to sell out but of course it wouldn't have been a it wouldn't have been wrong if you decided to take some money off the table just in case uh the excessive exuberance meant that prices were going to go down. In fact they didn't. They went down briefly after he said those words but it didn't last for very long. The rain is getting heavier and heavier as you can see. Hopefully I'm not getting wet. I'm I'm okay now. Um, so first of all, what area of the market is getting too expensive? Well, it's mainly the AI stocks, the chip makers, uh, the silicon, uh, board manufacturers, uh, and anything to do with data, uh, generally. Um, it's all getting more expensive. And of course, some of these data companies are getting rid of staff that are surplus to their requirements and therefore they reduce their expenses because they can now have AI do the same job at a fraction of the price. Uh so profits are going up and share prices are going up. I'm not for a moment suggesting that a crash is around the corner. Don't interpret what I'm saying as bit predicting a crash. I'm not predicting a crash. Of course, I have to be open to the idea it could happen. and what I'm going to tell you about. You'll still make money if we have a crash or you'll make money if the stock market goes up. Um, so bear with me on that. So, I'm going to talk about some uh first of all, what I'm doing, how I'm uh filtering for stocks. So, in a second, I'll I'll flip over to uh my computer at home and you'll see how I look for stocks. So, f the first filter I'm going to look for are the uh I'm going to pull out a list of the least healthy companies, and I'm going to dump that list into Excel. You can see I'm doing that in Simply Wall Street. Now, uh the next list I'm going to produce is a list of the companies which have the lowest growth prospects. I'm going to put that list into the Excel now. So, I've already got two two lists. I also like to eat. So companies which aren't paying dividends maybe they're a candidate for selling. So here we are. I'm looking at the simply Wall Street here and I'm looking at the companies which have got the lowest dividend score. That doesn't mean to say the lowest dividend but it's a low dividend score means the dividend is either unreliable or it's or it's low or it's just non-existent. Um they could be candidates for sale. Just because I'm putting these stocks into a list does not mean that I'm going to sell them all. It means I'm going to do some further looking at them in a minute. Um, and then one other category which I need to look at is the category where the share price is massively above what I paid for it and the position started to get a bit large. So there are one or two positions in the portfolio which are showing huge profits 20 20 times what I paid for it uh for example or more and these are circumstances where the position size is looking kind of big and I want to get rid of it. So in those situations, I'm weeding those stocks out of the portfolio potentially or at least not necessarily totally, but certainly top slicing, meaning I sell a bit of the profit, keep a bit of the profit and keep the original purchase in the portfolio. Now, one of the reasons I don't sell everything usually when I've got a big profit is it's great to look at a portfolio with lots of profits. Um, so if you sell everything of profitable companies, what are you left with? You're left with just a portfolio full of losers, or at least it looks like you've got a portfolio of losers. And you know, if you got family or you got friends or you got an accountant or a lawyer or somebody or a banker who might see your portfolio, it's much more satisfying to sit down with these people and say, "Look at my portfolio. Look how well it's doing." If it's got lots of green ink, positive returns and looks terrible if every stock is showing a loss. So, uh, practically speaking, I avoid selling the entirety of positions which is showing a loss. I will sell part of each position. Um so th those are candidates which have gone into the Excel sheet and then I'm going to look at each uh position individually to decide if I sell it or and if I do sell it how much of it I'm going to sell. Uh and to do that I'm going to look first of all I go I'm coming back to simply Wall Street again and I'm going to look at the what's called the snowflake which tells me all kinds of criteria very quickly you know what the growth prospects are or the future prospects what the uh past track records been like how healthy the company is what's its dividend score and of course its value score how cheap is it relative to other stocks in the same sector. Um, so all of that I'm interested in and that will help me determine which stocks I'm going to sell. Now, I'm not going to tell you precisely name. I don't I'm not giving investment advice here. Nothing is investment advice. I'm just telling you uh a practical approach that you can use to look at your portfolio and raise some cash for what I'm going to tell you, which are risk-free investments. At least some of them are, not all of them. Um, which will make money when the market goes up or down. Um, so you're raising a bit of cash because the market's gone a little bit higher. you want to take some money off the table. If it's gone higher, it means the prospects for further rises are not as high as they were. So, when the market was 10 or 20% lower than it is today, the prospects for a rise were higher than now it's gone up 20%. So, that's why I'd be taking some money off the table at the moment. Uh, I see my camera is getting rather wet. I can see drops of water underneath it. Hopefully, it'll uh not fail because it's filled with water. These cameras are supposed to be waterproof, I believe. I haven't test it. I'm not going to drop it in the in the in the shower and see. But um yeah, it's getting a bit wet. I'm got my camera my my umbrella partially covering it now. Um so, what am I talking about on the on the investment side? Now, all of the products we're going to talk about are conceptually known as structured products or customized investments. Um and in most countries you can find these investments uh typically be by calling your bank or your broker. You say what have you got? And they'll tell you what they've got and then you can assess it. Now the first type of investment I'm going to talk about is what the the safe investment what what I call uh they call capital guaranteed or capital protected. Now guaranteed and protected still it means you'll get your money back in a worst case scenario but only at the maturity of the investment. But when it says capital guaranteed or capital protected it you've got to look at who the guarantees from or who the protection is from. So usually it's from the what's called the issuer. So the issuer will be a bank or a broker or another firm who are issuing it and guaranteeing that you'll get your money back on maturity. So you've got to look at what's called the counterparty risk. I just move the camera back a bit here to try and have a little bit left. Um so you got to look at the counterparty risk when you're buying one of these products. uh is the person who's issued you with a guarantee to give you your money back really safe and will they still be around when maturity comes? Now capital protected and capital guaranteed it means that the protection or the guarantee only exists at maturity. If you want your money back before maturity there's no guarantee you'll get the 100% you put in. So, you let's say you put in $10,000 or £10,000 or euros or whatever it happens to be and it's a 2-year product. After two years, you know, in the worst case scenario, you'll get at least what you put in. And I'll talk about what you might get on top in a second. But if you want your money back after 6 months or a year, there's absolutely no guarantee whatsoever that you'll get back what you put in. Uh, and there's a probably at least a 50% chance you'll get less. Hello, dear friends. I'm just interrupting this program very briefly to tell you about my Little Trot series of books. The first one is called Little Trot Learns to Save Money. The second one is called Little Trot Discovers Inflation. The third book is called Little Trot Invests in Stocks. The fourth book is called Little Trot and the Great Gold Rush. And the fifth book is called Little Trot and the Goblin Tenants. These are beautifully illustrated books with an adventure story in each book. Both a disaster and a happy ending for the little trot. All related to money, saving or investing. These are not lessons. They're not lectures. They're adventure stories that children will love. Your children and grandchildren will absolutely love them. They don't feel at all like a dry lesson. These books are designed to make financial literacy enjoyable for not only your children and grandchildren, but for the entire family. These books can be read together. Just search for Little Trot on Amazon. Or you can get the book for free, book one, by going to clivetoson.com, looking for Little Trot, and then go to book one, and you can download it absolutely free of charge. Of course, I would much prefer that you buy it on Amazon, but I do understand that some people want to look before they buy, and some people just don't have an Amazon account. Um, but thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. I hope that you and your children and your grandchildren can all enjoy together the Little Trot series of books. And now back to the show. if they give you your money back at all because often these products they have a life of two years and they say they're not tradable. Although in practice the ones I deal with in Switzerland are all easily tradable. I can buy and sell them on the secondary market and I can buy them in the right circumstances below 100. Um we'll talk about that in a minute. But but in most places, you'll probably only be able to buy it at issue when your broker issues it. And you'll only be able to sell it uh at maturity or you'll get your money back at maturity. You'll get back 100% of what you put in. So what's what's the point of these capital guaranteed products? Well, typically they offer you a higher interest rate. So they pay interest provided a condition is met. uh or they offer you a higher return dependent on an index up to a limit provided the condition that they specify is met. So you might see for example a product which says this capital guaranteed product pays you 7% provided the stock market is higher in one or two years time than it is today. But if it's lower, you get your capital back no more. If it's higher, you get your capital back plus the 7%. That's one example. Uh, another example, and by the way, the interest rate might be higher or lower than 7%. I'm giving you an illustration. You can find out the real interest rates available by asking your bank or broker what they've got in this particular arena. The other thing you might find um in terms of customized investments which is also often described as capital guaranteed, capital protected are the products which link the return to the stock market. So they may say we give you 100% of any increase in the stock market up to let's say 10% over the next year. But if the stock market goes down, you only get your capital back. Uh but you don't lose. And again, the 10% is just a figure I plucked out of the air. I've seen this type of product in the past. I don't know if that's the rate available today. And to be honest with you, I'm not interested in the capital guaranteed products myself um because I'm willing to take risk. And I'm going to be telling you about products which take risk in a minute. Um but many people don't like risk. They don't like to lose money. So they want to go for the capital guarantee that you could get with a capital guaranteed product. Um again I stress the guarantee is only good as the as good as the guarantor. But many of these products issued by large well-known uh companies by banks big banks and you should feel as safe as you feel about putting your money in the bank in the first place. So two types of capital protected product. one which is linked to the stock market performance on the upside and two which is linked to a fixed interest rate provided the condition is met. In both cases if the condition that they've set in the document is not met you get your capital back no more no less. But if the stock market drops 50% getting your capital back's probably a very good thing. Um but uh but giving up the interest you would have otherwise earned uh too bad. You could have earned 3 or 4% if you'd put your money on deposit maybe. Now, next type of product I'm going to talk about is very similar to the first one. Also, it comes under the field of customized investments, cap um uh structured products. But this type is the type which isn't described as 100% protected. It will usually have a name like 95% protected or 90% protected product. What that means is in a worstc case scenario you will get back only 90% of what you put in. You will lose money. But in a best case scenario you'll have a larger participation in the upside of the stock market if that's what it's linked to. So if it's linked to uh the performance of a particular index like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones or the uh Footsie 100 or the CAT current in France or so forth or the SMI in Switzerland the Swiss market index if you look into one of those indexes instead of having let's say an upside of 8 or 9 or 10% you might have an upside of 15 or 20 but your downside also exists. The most you can lose is five or 10 or whatever the wherever the prediction So if the production is at 90, the most you can lose is 10%. Now in some of these products, you might be expected to pay an upfront fee, maybe 1%, sometimes the fees included, and more often it is included in the initial price. So although you're buying the product at 100 in there's a hidden fee inside the product, they'll tell you about it. They they've got to by law. Uh maybe 1% or something like that. Um, so 95% product means worst case you get 95 back. Best case means you might earn an interest rate of 10% instead of the 7% I mentioned earlier or 12% or something like that. Uh, and that's 12%. Oh well, let's yeah, let's be care careful. Sometimes that 12% on the initial capital, sometimes it's on the 95. Especially if it's linked to the stock market, you'll find it's 95% protected for your 100 you put in, but you only participated in the stock market rise starting from 95. So, if the stock market goes up 10%, you'll get 95 + 10 makes 105. So, you might as well put your money on deposit. But if the stock market goes up 20, you might get 95 plus 20 makes 115. You get back a profit of 15. but you've missed out on 5% of the stock market. And quite often these uh products cap the max if it's linked to the stock market, it will cap the maximum gain you can get. So it will say if the stock market goes up by more than X, you can't get more than that. That's it. That's that's where it's capped. So those are capital protected products and 90% or 85% or 90% protected capital protected products. Those were two. Now, let's go on to another type. Um, and by the way, there are many, many variances out there. Uh, but this type I'm going to talk about is a type I particularly like. Um, and it may not be available in every country. So, beware. Um, and now I'm going to talk about the capital protected products which are linked to either an index or or some specific stocks and they have what's called either a barrier or a strike. Now, barrier and strike are not exactly the same thing. Um, when they when they talk about a barrier, uh, they'll tell you what happens if the barrier is hit or breached and what happens if it's not. And when they talk about a strike, they'll tell you what could happen if the strike is breached or not. And typically, these products carry a high interest rate, much higher interest rate than you'd expect on a deposit. But in return, you're taking the risk that you might receive a lot less if a certain condition happens. So they are not capital guaranteed. Now the first type I'm going to talk about is known as the barrier reverse convertible. You may hear these terms. They may have other names as well. Uh but I'm going to talk the word barrier reverse convertible. Now th this is a type which I don't like. So but I'm going to tell you about it anyway. but they might be offering uh let's say 14% interest provided that the three let's say there's three stocks linked to it provided that none of the three stocks drop below let's say 53% of their initial price but if any of those stocks drop below 53% of the price you have to buy them at or not them you have to buy the worst of them at 100% of the initial price so I recently sold some of my technology stocks and took out uh in my case it was a 14% uh product paying 14% but in a worst case I might have to buy back the stock I sold at 100% of the price when I sold or well 100% of the price when I took out the note which is basically today's price if you like uh but only if the stock market drops 53%. Well, if I'd held the stock anyway, I would have the three stocks um I would have lost the lost that 47% the difference if it went down anyway. So, um but now what I I put myself into a situation where I'm going to get a 14% buffer. I might still have to buy those stocks at 100 when they're only worth 53 or less. Uh but at least I have the 14% interest over the next I think yeah it's exactly 12 months over the next year to compensate me. Um I don't particularly like those sort of products so um I don't usually do them but I did this one because I like the three underlying I forget which one they were. I think it was um probably Microsoft, Amazon um and another blue chip American company, one of the largest companies. I can't remember which one it was but it was a tech stock. Um, now the last type of product is one which I like much more. Um, and this is only for very sophisticated investors. So again, I'm not selling anything. I'm not proposing you go and buy these products. You're probably not allowed to buy them if you're a retail investor. Uh, well, if you're a retail investor, you're not allowed to buy them. That's end end of story. Uh, but the rules will vary by country. And if you think you might be a professional investor, that's typically meaning you've got a certain amount of money. It might be half a million or 100,000 depending on the country and you've dealt with this type of product before or you worked in a financial industry like as like as an accountant or uh investor or investment manager or something like that. If you've got some certain qualifications, you can qualify yourself as a qualified investor or a sophisticated investor or an experienced investor depending on the country and then you're allowed to buy these products because it's assumed that you have the knowledge and ability to understand them. and the ones I'm going to explain to you. Now, if you're a retail investor and you don't have the time to understand these products properly, you can tune out here. Just don't forget to give me a a like and please subscribe because I've got lots more coming up in this sort of vein. Uh but if you're knowledgeable and willing to do the donkey work, uh to actually read the fact sheet or the documents when these things come out, uh it's worth staying tuned. So, how does this work? The the the type I do like is called the low strike reverse convertible. What's a low strike reverse convertible? It's a product which is issued at 100 with a high interest rate, let's say 7 or 8%. The rate can vary according to the product and the conditions. And it'll typically have one, two, or three underlying stocks linked to it. or it could be an index linked to it like the SP SMI, the Swiss market index or the S&P 500, but I'm going to assume it's three well-known stocks. That's typical. And the basically the way it works with a low strike, it means that you only get to buy the worst performer of the three stocks if it ever not if it ever if at the maturity it's trading below the low strike price. So let's say for example we take three stocks I won't name them but three blue chip pharmaceutical stocks for example um it's a 18-month product for example interest rate might be 7 or 8%. The strike price is set at 60% of the initial price of these stocks. So, I invest $1,000 as an example. I will earn my 8% or 9% or whatever the rate interest rate is irrespective of what happens. That's basically written in stone. So, every 3 months I'll get paid a quarter. Let's say it's 8%. I I'll earn 2% every quarter paid to me regular as clockwork throughout the life of the product. And on maturity, provided all of the stocks are trading above the strike price, which I'm talking I'll talk about, I will get back the 100 I invested at the last coupon. So, if if it's a one-year product at 8%, I'll earn 108% for the 100 I invested. If it's a 1 and a half year product, I'll earn 112% at 8% coupon. And if it's a 2-year product, I'll earn 116% I mean 100 back plus 16% interest on maturity if that strike price has not been breached and and it stays below the strike price. Now what happens if it goes below the strike price? So let's say that the stock that one of the stocks um I buy three stocks they're all priced at 100 for simplicity. Uh one of them goes up, one goes down and one goes down a lot. So one of them goes down to and the the barrier or not the barrier the strike prices for all three is 60% of the initial level. If the worst performer is trading at 61% of the initial level. So the stock market's basically gone down. I'm still going to get back 100% of my money plus a nice high coupon. The 8% a year if it's two years 16% in total spread over the two years. So, even though the stock market went down nearly 40%. And I'm assuming the stock performed in line with the stock market, I'm still going to make a nice profit. But what happens if the stock market goes down by 41%. So, the strike price has been breached. Well, if the stock market before before it matures, it goes back up again above that 60% uh strike, it doesn't matter. But if at maturity on the last fixing date, if at maturity it's trading below the strike price. So it started at 100, the fixing was at 60% of initial. So the strike price is 60. It was trading at 59 or 58 or 57 or 40 or 30 or 12 or 9 or 1 or nothing. Bad luck. I've got to buy the stock at the strike price of 60. So, let's What does that mean? It means my $1,000 that I put in has to buy $1,000 worth of those shares at a price of 60. I can't do the maths in my head. Um, but that's going to be very very roughly something like 16 or 17 shares multiplied by 60 will give me the $1,000. Think that right? Is it 20 * 50 is 1,000? Yeah, that's right. Yeah, very roughly. So, in the low strike reverse convertibles, these are not capital guaranteed products. If one of the underlyings goes to zero, you'll be forced to buy the stock at 60, but it's worth nothing. So, you've lost all your money. So, bear in mind, it's not it's not risk-free. Um and if it goes below if any of those stocks go below the strike price I below 60 you'll be buying the very worst of them at 60 even though the price is below 60. So if if for example one of them has gone down is now trading at it started at 100 is now trading at 30. You're buying that stock at 60 but it's only worth 30. You've lost half your money. Now why would I buy a product with such a risk? Well, let's put it another way. I'm buying the stocks anyway. I own them in the stock market. They could any one of them could go to nothing. I could lose all my money. I know that. Uh there's no such thing as a guarantee. Even with the most perfect stocks, they're not guaranteed. Um so, I could lose all my money. Am I prepared to take a risk that a stock trading at 100 today is going to be trading at 60 in a year or two years time? Well, it depends how much I like the company. If I like the company, yes, I'm willing to take that risk. Uh, of course, I have to accept that it might happen. But if it does happen, let's say it's an 8% coupon. If it goes below 60, well, I've got a buffer because I'll have earned 16 while I was waiting for the maturity to see if it's above or below the strike price of 60. So, the worst case scenario, I said you could lose all your money. The worst case scenario is you don't lose all your money. You actually lose all of the capital, but you've still earned that premium interest. So, if it's two-year product, you've earned if it's an 8% coupon, you'll have earned 16%. So, you've actually lost only 84% of your money. I say only 84. Who wants to lose that much? Nobody. But, you know, it if if you if you were willing if you were willing to take the risk on the stock itself, well, it's it's a situation where whether the market goes up or down, provided it doesn't go down too much, you'll make money. So that's a win-win situation um for for the investor because market goes up, you make money or yeah, it's capped at whatever the coupon is. So you won't make more than that. Market goes down, you make money provided the market doesn't go down too far, at least the stocks you which are in the in the basket, the three two or three stocks. But here's something even better. Now this is is possible for investors in Switzerland. I have no idea if it's possible elsewhere, but in Switzerland, there are thousands or hundreds of these products which have been previously issued. They're up and running. And there are there's a two-way quote maintained by many banks. I won't name the banks, but lots of banks maintain two way quotes on the secondary market for these products. Now, what's the advantage of the secondary market? the price is no longer at 100 depending on how the underlying is performing. The price might be above or below 100. Oh, there is an important thing I'd like to me mention about all of these products, not all, but some of them have what's called an early redemption clause, which means that the the issuer can, if he so wishes, redeem the product at par, and you get your 100 back earlier than your one or two year life. So, it does happen from time to time when all the stocks go up. You'll get a notice that the issuer has decided to redeem the product at 100 and therefore you won't get your future coupons and you've got to think about doing a new one to get coupons on a new one, albeit at higher prices. Now, um but let's come back to buying on the secondary market. So, many of these products are quoted on the secondary market by Swiss banks and you can go to the websites and see what the quotation is uh if you know where to look. By the way, you can't if you're not a Swiss um you're not a Swiss resident and you're not a qualified investor, both of those you can't buy them uh these are Swiss products on the second market, but you could buy the ones in your own country because these products are not generally they're not authorized for sale overseas or they're only authorized for sale overseas under certain conditions and definitely no American would be allowed to buy a Swiss product. That's due to the American rules just as um maybe uh a French investor might not be allowed to buy an American product. I don't know if that's the rule, but you got to look at the rules in each case. So by when you're do look at these things, you got to look at them in your own country and see what's available in your own country. Um and if you're not sure um you're probably not sophisticated enough to be dealing in them in the first place, but uh if you're wealthy and you're qualified investor, you can ring your broker or your bank and say, "Do you do these and where can I find out about them?" And that would be the job of your banker to go and find something that meets your needs. Now I'm talking about I'm talking about buying on the secondary market. Now this is buying the low strike reverse convertibles on the secondary market. Now I have bought a bunch of products which are trading at below 100 and have got anything from 6 months to two years left of their life paying a coupon. But let's just remember if you've got a coupon of 5% at 100, if you only paid 80 for that product, your coupon is that much more because you're getting five on 80 instead of five on 100. So your coupon is much bigger as a percentage compared with what what you could have done. And also because you're buying the product at 80 or 90, you have an addition in addition to the coupon, you have an additional upside if the market uh if the if the none of the underlying breach go below the strike price and don't breach it and the don't breach it on maturity. So what you're looking for are ideally products on the secondary market where the barrier has not or the strike price rather has not been breached and you think that it won't be breached. That's important because if it is breached you could lose money potentially evenly for your coupons. But let's say you find a product you buy it at 80 um you've got 20% upside actually 25% upside on 80 plus you've got the coupons coming. Let's say it's over 2 years, it's 16% for example. So you got 25 + 16, that's 35, that's 41% upside over two years to compensate you for whatever the stock market is. That's the maximum you can make. And that's what you'll make if the market stands still and none of the uh whether the market goes up or if the market goes up, that's what you make. If the market stands still, that's what you make, provided those stocks are all trading above the strike price. But what happens if the stock goes below the strike price? Well, of course, you're now obliged to buy that stock at the strike price. But it's not the 80 you invested that's used to buy the price that that strike price. It's the original,000 that you never paid. You only paid 80, but you get a,000 Swiss Franks or dollars worth of money invested in the stock at the strike price. even though you only paid 80. So you're getting you're getting your your actual um entry price to all intents and purposes isn't the strike price at which you pay which you have to pay because the stock broke breached the break. Your actual entry price is somewhat lower. It's 80 divided by the number of shares you're going to get. The number of shares by the way in these cases is always fixed at the outset. Uh so you know for example um the initial price was 100 the strike price is 50 um and the share price uh so you worst case you're buying the shares at 50 you invested a,000 you're going to be buying 20 shares at 50 but if you only invested eight 80 at a price of 80 you only invested 800 Swiss Franks or $800 so that $800 is going to be invested in the shares not $800 the $1,000 is going to be invested in the shares at 50. So you're going to get 20 shares. But don't forget you only paid 80%, so 800 you paid. So that means that even if the shares are now trading at 40, you've got 20 shares worth 40 below the strike price. you haven't yet lost money on the capital and you've still received the coupons of let's say 8% a year. Um it could be 16% you've received over the life of the product depending on when you go in. You've received the coupons on top. So you you've got a a big buffer against a big fall in the stock market. So this is the type of product I like. Now this is only for the most sophisticated investors. You can't buy uh a Swiss product if you're not in Switzerland. Usually you have to well maybe in certain circumstances you can if you have a wealth manager in Switzerland you can see if that's allowed but certainly not if you're American. Um but you can if this is available in your own country on the secondary market you have to go and look. I'm not going to tell you how to do it. I'm not work I'm not providing investment advice to anybody. Um, I'm just telling you of the kinds of things that you can do if you have the time and the ability to go hunting for investments which probably will give you um a profit whether the stock market goes up or down. So, just to wrap up, what have I been doing? I've been selling some of my stocks. I showed you how I find the stocks to sell. Uh, obviously I'm going to look at them in a bit more detail than I showed you in this show. Um then I'm putting the money into uh in my case mostly low strike reverse convertibles trading below 100 which in all probability will give me a profit whether the stock market goes up or the stock market goes down and just to tell you I've got quite a lot of these um and I ran the maths through chatbt uh no I ran it through manis AI effect to get the calculation done um and logically if the uh for the entire collection. If the stock market goes up by 20% allowing for the coupons, I should be receiving around 30 something%. And if the stock market goes down by 20%, uh, and we're assuming that all stocks behave exactly in line with the stock market, I should still have a positive return of around 13%. Um, and that's because I've bought these products below 100 on the secondary market. Uh, they're quoted by lots of Swiss banks on the secondary market. I'm quite sure that might I don't guarantee it, but it's probably the case in other countries. Uh you have to go hunting. You have to know they exist. Uh and if it sounds complicated, stay away. Uh but you can probably get the first lot of products, the capital protected ones, just by talking with your banker in most countries. Ladies and gentlemen, my name is Clive Thompson. Thank you for tuning in. I have more stories like this, so subscribe if you'd like to hear about other things you can do in Swiss banking or investments. There's always something interesting and useful. And sometimes I have great tips. And sometimes I have terrible tips on stocks. I don't know whether a stock's going to go up or down. So just because I mention the name of a stock doesn't mean to say I'm recommending it. It means that I think it's a good idea for me personally, but it might well go down after I've recommended it. So you have to be a little bit uh wary not to say, "Oh, Clive recommended, so I'll go into it." You have to do your own due diligence, your own search. And of course, you can go and talk to your financial advisor or your banker uh or your investment advisor and see what they think. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. Don't forget to subscribe for more like this. Uh I'm getting very wet now. Bye-bye. Let's turn that off. Now I've lost the little button. Oh, there it is. Yeah.

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