2026 will be India's Hottest Year | SUPER El Niño is Coming | Dhruv Rathee

In 1877, the summer was so hot and terrifying that in the Madras Presidency of British India, millions of people were killed. Every road, every village, was full of corpses. In this one massacre, about 2 crore people were killed. It was a famine that made India almost barren. But surprisingly, it wasn't just India. In the same year, there was a terrible massacre in China. About 2 to 3 crore people died. There was a famine in Brazil as well. About 200,000 people died. Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Southern Africa, all these places were hit by the plague. Throughout the whole world, on different continents, millions of people were dying of hunger. In Minnesota, America, that year was called the year without a winter. The winter season must have disappeared that year. The question is, what happened in 1877? Its root cause was not an earthquake, war, or disease. In reality, it was a natural phenomenon that started thousands of kilometers away, on the coast of Peru, in a small part of the ocean. In the 70s, Peruvian fishermen named it with love, El Niño, meaning a small child. But that year, this natural phenomenon became so extreme, so extreme, that it became the cause of the deaths of millions of people. That year, it was named Super El Niño. And today, in 2026, after about 140 years, it is coming back. The biggest weather forecasting centre in Europe, with the latest models from the ECMWF, says that the biggest El Niño in the last 140 years is coming. Some experts are calling it the Mega El Niño. And it is being said that the summer of 2026, the most dangerous summer in human history, is coming. Before starting the video, I would like to tell you that this Sunday at 7 pm, I am coming live. This is your last chance as I am organizing a 3-hour live workshop, AI Masterclass 3.0. This is the fastest and most affordable way for all beginners to upskill themselves in the field of AI. Here, you'll learn to use more than 30 AI tools practically, prompting techniques, and secret hacks to make the most realistic photos and videos using AI, and even how to create songs and websites. This is especially for those who have no technical background. And it costs as much as two movie tickets. You can see on the screen how great the reviews of the previous classes were. 82% said that the class was above and beyond their expectations. Don't delay joining. The link is in the description below. Or you can scan this QR code. The Indian Meteorological Department has started giving heatwave warnings. The temperature in Delhi has exceeded 40°C. In UP and Rajasthan, it's 42°C to 43°C. In cities like Nagpur, Bhopal, and Bhubaneswar, it has reached 45°C. And it's still only April. A video went viral in Bangalore where crayons were kept in the sun and started melting. They were turning into colorful liquid and flowing in the tray. To understand this issue better, we need to know what exactly El Niño is. In simple terms, in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean, where cold water is usually expected, the water suddenly gets unusually hot. And when trillions of liters of water get heated at once, so much heat is released that the wind, rain, and weather patterns of the entire planet change. The Pacific Ocean is the world's largest and deepest ocean. The winds normally blow in an easterly to westerly direction. These winds are called trade winds, and they mostly flow from America to Asia and Australia. What happens is that the water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean starts to flow towards the West, toward Australia. And when the water flows across, the deep water below the sea starts moving upward in the east. So the water starts rising from the sea near South America. And this water is comparatively colder. It has more nutrients. This is a normal situation, where warm water flows towards Australia and cold water flows towards South America. When the water is warm, it evaporates more easily. And because of that evaporation, clouds form, leading to heavy rain near Australia. But now imagine that the trade winds have weakened. When the winds are not blowing fast, the cold water coming up toward South America will stop rising. The surface will remain hot, and the rain intended for Australia will fall in the middle of the Pacific Ocean or elsewhere. This phenomenon is called El Niño. It is like a cycle. But it's not a regular cycle. Sometimes it comes every 2 years, every 5 years, or every 7 years. But when it happens, it lasts for 6 to 12 months. And during this duration, the weather patterns around the world change. The region of Australia becomes very dry. There is a lack of rain. Bushfires are seen. This dry condition is also carried over to Southeast Asia and India, where there are weak monsoons and intense heatwaves. So an ordinary El Niño is bad news for India. But this year, it could be especially bad news. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA issued its latest advisory in April 2026, stating that between May and July 2026, there is a 61% chance of the formation of an El Niño. And this timing is the most dangerous thing because El Niño will reach its peak just as India's monsoon season is reaching its peak. That is, right when we need rain the most. Our crops are dependent on the monsoon, and El Niño could destroy everything. The second problem is the intensity. According to the NOAA, it could be a very strong El Niño. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean can rise by 2°C. That makes it a Super El Niño. You might think that it is only 2°C. But the fact that the water is more than 2°C warmer makes a huge difference. You can understand this using the 2015-16 reference. The last time a Super El Niño occurred was in 2015. That year, Marathwada received 40% less rain. There was 14% less rain in the entirety of India. And record-breaking heatwaves were seen. In the history of independent India, it was one of the deadliest heatwaves. More than 2,500 people were killed across the country. More than 2,000 people died in Pakistan because of this heatwave. But this year's El Niño could be even greater than the 2015 one. According to Paul Roundy, a professor at New York State University, this could be the largest El Niño in the last 140 years. The third major problem is climate change. Because of this, the Earth's average baseline temperature has increased. In 2026, it was around 1.4°C higher than the pre-industrial average. This is where the real scary twist comes in. As I told you, El Niño was a common weather event that had been occurring for thousands of years. Before climate change, when El Niño arrived, the temperature used to rise by 1.4 to 1.5°C. But today, the baseline is already at 1.4°C. Now, El Niño will add another 1.5°C. The net result is 2.9°C. This huge temperature anomaly has never been seen in human history. Imagine sitting in a room where the temperature is 40°C and someone turns on a heater. This is the mixture of climate change and Super El Niño. The El Niño that will arrive in 2026 will have a four-layer impact on India. The first layer is the monsoon season. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted the lowest normal monsoon since 2015. The normal rainfall is expected to be only 92%. Apart from parts of Northeast India, Northwest India, and the South Peninsula, the rest of the country will face a deficit. The second layer is agriculture. The problem is that about 51% of India's agriculture is completely dependent on the monsoon. The third layer is heatwaves. Due to Super El Niño, the probability of intense heatwaves increases. The forecast says that in East Central India, Northwest India, and the Southeast Peninsula, there will be more heatwave days than usual this year. 2024 was the hottest year in India's history. Scientists predict that by 2026, the heat records of 2024 will be broken. The fourth layer is the effect you will see directly at home. A below-normal monsoon means lower food production. And lower food production means higher food prices. Data shows that in an average El Niño year, global non-fuel prices rise by 5%. In a Super El Niño year, the situation is even worse. In the case of food, inflation goes up by 9%. And India's inflation is already high. On one hand, the pressure of war in Iran, coupled with a bad monsoon, can make things even worse. And the worst effect of this will be on those people who can't afford an air conditioner and who don't have a grocery buffer. To understand how bad 2026 could be, we have to look at 2024. 2024 was the hottest year since 1901. 1901 was when official recording started. In 2024, the temperature in Churu, Rajasthan, was 50.5°C. In Ganganagar, Rajasthan, it was 49.4°C. And in Delhi NCR, it reached 49.1°C. In May 2024 alone, heatwave days increased by 125. And here comes another thing that TV and news channels often miss. People usually think that heatwaves are only dangerous during the day. But heatwaves don't only kill during the day. What's most dangerous is the body not cooling down at night. This prevents our body from recovering, and the risk of heatstroke multiplies. To understand how serious this is, look at the numbers for Delhi in 2024. In 2024, Delhi's daytime temperature increased by only 1.8°C, but the temperature at night increased by 4.4 degrees. In May and June of 2024, the temperature remained above 30 degrees for 24 nights. This was double the average temperature from 2001 to 2010. There is a local reason behind this, which is known as the Urban Heat Island Effect. We are cutting down trees in cities, and concrete is standing in place of open spaces. Concrete absorbs heat during the day and slowly releases that heat at night. Apart from this, there's a paradox in the heat. People often use ACs to cool down their homes. While it cools the house, the AC itself releases exhaust heat from the back, which heats up the surrounding area. This is suffered by people who cannot afford an AC. In India, 38 crore workers work in heat-exposed sectors. They drive rickshaws, they dig stones at construction sites, sell goods on the roads, and deliver packages. This work is mostly informal. They have no paid leave, no health insurance, and no legal protection. These people carry the burden of the increasing heat. According to a study conducted on 400 workers in Delhi, with a temperature increase of only 1°C, their earnings fall by 14%. And during a heatwave, their income drops by 40%. The reason behind this is the cost of medicines, water, and ice. On a national level, it is estimated that in 2024, due to the heatwave, India lost $194 billion. Even government officials suffer the consequences. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, 33 polling officers were killed by heatstroke in Madhya Pradesh while performing government duties. It was the government's responsibility to take steps to save people from heatwaves. But let alone saving lives, the government didn't even want to count their deaths. Three different government agencies, the NCRB, NDMA, and IMD, gave different numbers from 2000 to 2020. The NCRB said that more than 20,000 deaths were caused by heatwaves. The IMD said only around 10,000. The reason is that doctors write on death certificates that the causes are cardiac arrest, organ failure, or dehydration. But the heat is never acknowledged as the trigger. The actual number is much higher. A detailed analysis estimated that every summer, about 1.5 lakh people die from heatwaves. The condition is so bad that 1 out of every 5 people who die from heatwaves in the world is Indian. Twelve natural disasters in India have been officially recognized. This includes cold waves, but not heatwaves. Why not? Because if a heatwave is made a notified disaster, then the National Disaster Response Fund will have to pay compensation of Rs 4 lakhs for every confirmed heat death. Since the government doesn't want to spend this money, deaths remain uncounted. On July 25th, 2024, the Modi government clearly stated in Parliament that there was no plan to include heatwaves as a notified disaster. The question arises, is there a cheap and simple solution to this problem? There is. A solution has been discovered to reduce the temperature by 12°C at the pedestrian level. Imagine how much of a difference 12°C makes. If the temperature is 47°C, it could go down to 35°C. This simple solution is planting trees. 182 meta-studies have confirmed this. The more trees and less concrete we have, the less the temperature will increase at night, and heatwave deaths will decrease. So the question is, are trees being planted in India? Unfortunately, not at all. In fact, the trend is being reversed. In just 2024, 18,200 hectares of primary forests were cut. Mangroves are being cut in Mumbai. In Delhi, ignoring the Supreme Court's 1996 order, the DDA cut down the Ridge Forest. In Gadchiroli, Maharashtra, 1.23 lakh trees were cut down for a mining plant. The government approved it. In Nashik, banyan trees that are hundreds of years old are being cut down. More than 1,000 trees are being cut down specifically for the Kumbh Mela. In Hasdev, a whole forest was destroyed to make a mine. The government and the company disappointed the Adivasis. The village assembly was held three times. People refused. They didn't want to give up their land. So they held a meeting for the fourth time. They pressured the head of the village. They forced him to sign the documents. In the last year, more than 12,500 trees were cut in Gurgaon. This is the situation in almost all the cities in the country. And when asked why they are cutting so many trees, they give the excuse that it is for development. They claim that if one tree is cut, 10 more are planted. But do you know the truth? How many trees are actually being planted? Between 2015 and 2019, 18 square kilometers of old trees were cut for every square kilometer of new trees planted. This is the rate of deforestation in the country. And 50% of the new trees that have been planted are in isolated patches, which have no ecological benefit. I'm not just saying this. It's from a study by IIT Bombay. Hearing this will give you a natural reaction. You realize these are all very dangerous things happening. But the question is, what can a single person do? I can't stop El Niño alone. Nor can I stop climate change alone. So, what can one individual do? There are some things that are in your hands. Get inspiration from the activists in Nashik. Save every single tree in your city and your neighborhood from being cut down. You are the power! This is the most important thing. It is important to plant new trees, but the most vital thing is to save the old ones. Because when you plant new saplings, 90% of them die. Actually taking care of new saplings for years and watching those trees grow takes a long time. And the chances of success are very low. So do plant new trees, but don't forget to save the old ones. Apart from that, during summer days, don't plan to go out between 12 and 4 pm. Keep your body hydrated. Keep an ORS packet with you. It only costs 10 to 12 rupees. And it's the first line of defense against heatstroke. Other than this, look at the people around you. The security guard in the society. The delivery boy who comes to your home. The construction worker who works in the sun. The street vendor who is outside. Offer them cold water. And if possible, offer them a cool place to rest. Because they are at the highest risk of being killed by heatstroke. Third, we cannot stop climate change alone, but we can collectively make a small contribution. The electricity that comes to your home is largely generated from coal. India's electricity still has a 70% coal contribution. This not only spreads air pollution, but also has a huge impact on climate change. Stop being dependent on the grid. Install solar panels at your home. If there is no roof, you can put solar panels on your balcony. In recent times, the price of solar panels has dropped significantly. Actually, it will save you money. Look at countries like Syria, where the war had destroyed everything. But unintentionally, there's a solar revolution happening there because solar has become so cheap to power homes instead of using private generators. My own house now runs on solar energy with the help of panels on the roof. You can do the same. And you should. Because the El Niño that is coming this year will not be the last. It will come again after 3 to 4 years. And then after another 3 to 4 years, it will return. And every time, it will hit a new, hotter baseline. If we don't reduce our carbon emissions, if we don't save the forests, and don't invest in renewable energy, then one day, every year will feel like an El Niño year. The most shocking thing is that children born in 2026 will have a different concept of a normal summer. They will never know the summers we saw in our childhood, where it was 30 to 35 degrees. They won't know how those were. For them, summers will always mean 45 degrees Celsius. Forever. So take action. Take small steps. Take care of yourself, and take care of your loved ones. Thank you very much! Don't forget to join the AI Masterclass, it's going to happen this Sunday. You can click on the link to join. If you liked this video and want to understand more about climate change and how other countries are fighting it, then this story is very interesting. A country that is about to sink due to rising sea levels. You can click here to watch it. Goodbye.