Game Theory #21: World War Trump

There has been so far a two-week ceasefire between Iran and United States. The ceasefire is supposed to end tomorrow. And right now the Americans have gone to a summer bad to negotiate a possible peace treaty. The Iranians may go, they may not go. We don't know yet. It is entirely possible that the Iranians will go to Zabbad and it's entirely possible that they will negotiate a ceasefire, a peace treaty that ends the war. But unfortunately, this war will not end. So, a lot of people believe that this war, it is just because Donald Trump has decided to go to war with Iran for whatever reason. Um, but that's not true. This war in Iran is actually part of a larger strategic vision that the United States has to maintain its empire. Okay. And today I want to explain why that is the case and how this war will progress. But first I want to look at some recent events from these past two weeks. One of the big news these past two weeks is that there are a lot of oil refineries that have um that are a fire. Okay? They've been a light. So even as the world is being cut off from 20% of energy from the Middle East, there are lots of oil refineries that are being uh destroyed. Okay, so this is from Russia and this is actually Russia's largest oil refinery. As you can see, >> it is pretty extensive. Okay, but this is not Russia. It is actually a lot of places. So this is Myanmar and these are 10 10 oil tankers. >> So um there are a lot of oil refineries that have uh that are being destroyed right now. We don't know why this is happening, but there's a lot. Okay, there's there's over like there's already been over 50 or fineries that have been that have been on fire these past uh 45 days. Another thing that's been happening is that even though there's a ceasefire in effect, the Americans have imposed a blockade on Iran and the Americans have escalated the situation by boarding and basically taking over an Iranian ship returning from China. Okay, so let's just look at some of the footage. So what happened was that the Indian ship was returning from China and the Americans suspected that the ship had important uh fuel and components for ballistic missiles. The Americans tried to board the ship. The ship would not stop. The Americans fired at the engine and then they boarded the ship with special forces. Okay? And this is what would be considered an act of piracy. Um and before the um secretary of war, Peter Hex, he before complained that you have to let ships freely navigate in the seas, but he's also said that it's perfectly okay for the Americans to steal ships. Okay, >> to be clear, threatening to shoot missiles and drones at ships, commercial ships that are lawfully transiting international waters, that is not control. That's piracy. That's terrorism. >> Certainly, that is >> okay. So, you understand. So, the fact that Iran has closed off the surf and threatened to attack ships with drones and ballistic missiles, that is wrong. That is piracy. Unless the Americans do this. Okay. Unless the Americans do this. >> Well is taking notice of that. And it continues because two oil tankers two overnight were seized by the United States of America. Stateless or sanctioned because the oil blockade, the quarantine of oil out of unsanctioned or stateless sanctioned or stateless uh vessels continues. That leverage will continue uh as Secretary Rubio outlined. So as you've seen today, >> okay. So does that make sense? It is wrong for the world to be pirates and to seize ships, but it's okay for the United States to do this because the United States is the one that sets the rules for the world. Duh. Okay. So, this war is not going well for the United States. This is uh Rick Scott and he's a senator from Florida and he explains that it doesn't really matter if the war is not going well for the United States because what's happening is that we're hurting China and that's what's important. >> How do you feel like the war in Iran, which is sort of in a ceasefire right now, how do you feel like this is going? Should the US wrap this up, get out of there now, or do you think there's more to do there? >> I think I I think I appreciate that Trump's trying to get rid of the nuclear weapons. I don't want to die by a nuclear weapon from Iran. They wanted to kill us. I mean I mean this appeasement of bullies. I don't know if in your life if that's worked for you guys. It's never worked for me. And so they wanted to kill us. So uh they're very and they're getting close uh to be in a position to kill us. And they basically have been killing Americans. Uh so I think what Trump did is the right thing. Uh now I think this there he has to he has to get the them in a position that they don't have the ability to do nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. That's I think that's where we have to go. I don't know what the right approach is going to be. Um I think blocking um the straight horm is is um is fine from my standpoint. If no if no oil ever goes to China again and their economy is destroyed, that would be a really wonderful day for me. >> Okay, you guys understand the Americans may lose this war, but if the end result is that China no longer gets any oil from the Middle East and the economy is destroyed, it's worth it. All right. Okay. Even now, even at this late stage, we're about 50 year 50 days into this war. The Americans have yet to explain why this war started in the first place. So, so this is Karen Livit and she was asked by a reporter again why this war started and this is this is her response. >> Said yesterday for the first time that he had to strike Iran because he believes that Iran was going to strike US targets within 7 days and then he then bumped that down later to 3 days. Where is he getting that? Well, that's not the first time the president has said that he chose to launch Operation Epic Fury because he felt as though Iran was going to strike the United States and our assets in the region first. Again, I addressed this in the last briefing of this was a feeling the president had based on facts. Facts provided to him. >> So, it was a feeling based on facts. Okay, that's why Trump start this war. >> Trump himself has given conflicting signals. Um he said uh that this war is going to end soon. He's also said that this war is going to continue. All right. So he changed every day. >> News uh 20 minutes ago, but it seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran. We'll know over a little bit of time. We're negotiating over the weekend. And as you know, we have the blockade. The blockade's been very successful and of equal success has been the 5 weeks before the blockade. The combination was pretty lethal, I would say. So, we're going to be knowing very shortly. So, he's saying this war is going great. Um, we should have a ceasefire soon. Okay. And then maybe an hour later, he's like, "Oh, I think I need to drop bombs on Iran." So there's a lot of conflicting signals coming from Trump. And what I want to show you today, what I want to argue uh to you today is that you have to ignore these signals and focus on the larger American strategy in this war. And once you once we understand the strategy, then it's very easy for us to understand how this war will progress over the next few years. Okay? Because this war is not going to end soon. It won't be a few months. It'll probably be a few years. And quite honestly, um it may take 10 or 20 years. Okay. So, let's look over some more news. So as I mentioned previously, oil refineries are getting sabotaged either by accident or purposefully. Um what this tells us is that in the for past 45 days there have been at least 45 recorded incidents around the world of oil refineries being set on fire. Okay. So Iran uh was bombed by the Israelis and then the Israelis responded by attacking Qatar. Uh Russia is being attacked by Ukraine and um the big one is that in Australia in Jon one of the refineries was uh set on fire and they claim it was an accident. This is important because Australia is not at war but Australia needs a lot of oil. Okay. So right now Australia is in a lot of trouble. Um Romania, Bucharest has been hit, India has been hit, Marmar has been hit. Okay, so all around the world there are these fires going on destroying the world's oil supply. So why is this happening? Um and who's doing this? We don't know. And quite honestly, we may never know. But to figure out the answer, you always ask yourself um who benefits, right? And you always look at three things. means, motive, and opportunity. And so from this, you could figure out that the majority of these fires are being set um are being deliberately set in order to reduce the world's oil supply. And the people who can do this, the people who benefit from doing this are the the Russians or the Americans. Okay? One of these two. It's probably both, but we don't know for sure yet. All right. Um, this war as we discussed previously is have is having already having a tremendous impact on the world's economy. So, sulfur um has risen in price by 57%. Sulfur is important for the manufacturer of both fertilizers as well as for microchips. Okay. Uh, jet fuel has grown gone by 52%. So next time you're flying United States, it's going to be a much more expensive ticket. Uh URA is more of a fertilizer. Uh diesel, gasoline, fertilizer. So basically um food and uh energy their price have gone way up. Okay. Donald Trump makes a statement saying that the Iranian flag cargo ship Tusca has been boarded by the Americans. Okay. And Donald Trump continues to threaten the Iranians and say that if you continue to close out the Hammoose um then we will negotiate with bombs basically. All right. No more Mr. Nice Guy. And quite honestly, what what he's also saying is we don't really care because we don't need that oil from the Middle East. Also, we can sell our oil um to the world. Okay. The United States loses nothing. In fact, many ships are headed right now to the US, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska to load up compliments of the RGC. We just want to be the tough guy. All right. So, we're we're the ones benefiting from this war. So, we have nothing to worry about. All right. So another thing that I want you guys to pay attention to is how America is moving towards a war economy. All right. So um the Pentagon has been in talks with General Motors and Ford to make munitions, drones, and military equipment. Right? So this is what this this last happened in World War II when America moved to total war. Their factories that used to make cars were now making tanks. But not only that, but Trump also announced something called the Defense Production Act as of today. And what this does is it basically allows government to subsidize private corporations in the manufacturer of weapons. Okay? So these companies, General Motors, Ford, um they can make a lot of money because of this war. That's that's something to keep keep in mind. Starting December, Americans who are aged 18 to 26 will be automatically registered for the draft. Okay? So, it's very likely that America will soon introduce a national draft and force young man to go fight in the Middle East. Currently, the Pentagon budget is $1 trillion. Next year, it'll be $1.5 trillion. increase by of um 50%. Okay. And we can expect that thereafter it might be $2 trillion. Um more veterans are now being asked to serve longer. Okay. So what we're seeing is that the United States is moving towards a wartime economy. Okay. Okay, they're preparing for what we call total war when an economy moves towards uh the manufacturer of weapons and munitions. All right. Another thing that's that's been happening that you should pay attention to is the fact that there's very little opposition. In fact, there's no opposition to Donald Trump fighting this war in Iran. You would think that the Democrats, his opponents, would use this opportunity to promote anti-war messages or try to stop him from uh plunging America into another forever war in the Middle East. Instead, the Democrats are doing as much as possible not to do anything. So, recently in Congress, they had a vote as to whether or not to restrict Trump's ability to fight this war. Okay? And there were four Republicans who did not vote and one Republican who voted we should restrict Trump. Okay. And so this vote should have been 214 to 213 in favor. Yes, we will restrict Trump's war powers. But then what happened was that one Democrat, just one Democrat decides I'm going to switch MY VOTE TO NO. So now now becomes 214 to 213. Okay? Do you understand guys? This is all political theater. Do you understand? It's all theater. Meaning that it was already pre-arranged between the Republicans and Democrats that this resolution would fail. In other words, if maybe two Republicans voted yes, then two Democrats would have voted no. If 10 Republicans voted uh yes, then 10 Democrats would have voted no. You understand? The Democrats are not opposing this war. They're doing as much as possible to support this war. So the the question then is why is this happening? Why is America moving towards a wartime economy? Why are the Democrats so supportive of this war? And the answer has to do with empire. Okay. So this is something called the national defense strategy that came out in January 2026. And this is a blueprint for how the Pentagon will fight wars for the next 5 to 10 years. This is a strategy behind the Iran war. All right. And so what we're going to do is we're going to read certain parts together to analyze how the Americans will strategize about the world moving forward. Okay. So, um um Ivory, could you help help me read, please? Thank you. >> For too long, the US government neglected, even rejected putting Americans in their concrete interests first. Previous administrations squandered our military advantages and the lives, goodwill and resources of of her people in grandio nation building projects and self- congratulatory pledges to uphold cloud castle abstractions like the rulebased international order. These p these past leaders neglected and often actively undermined our war fighters warrior ethos and our military's core irreplaceable role fighting winning and thereby deterring the wars that really matter to our people. Consequently, President Trump entered office with the nation on the precipice of distress disastrous wars for which we were unprepared. >> Okay, so certain things to keep in mind. Okay, concrete interest first means that we have to think about resources. We have to think about concrete advantages to America. We can we can no longer think about ideals. Okay. Second is the idea of rulesbased international order or the globalist. Before America was fighting wars for their nations or for Europe or for Japan, we had to fight wars for America. Okay. And the last thing is the idea of um uh undermine our warriors ethos. Okay. Undermine our warrior ethos. What this means is that before America was bounded by too many rules. Okay. What what they call rules of engagement. Okay. or basically avoiding war crimes. You were not allowed to kill civilians. You needed permission from the nations to fight wars. And what this is saying is like screw that. Okay? Screw rules of engagement. We should just fight wars to win wars. That means we kill as many people as we need. That means we do whatever is necessary in order to win wars. Okay. So this is what the first paragraph is saying here. It's a new vision of American power. Before it was about ideals. Now it's about interest. Before it was about globalism. Now it's about America first. Before it was about rules of engagement. Now it's about the warrior ethos. Okay. Uh please continue reading. Ivory. >> President Trump has decisively changed that courageously putting Americans first to truly make America great once again. Under his leadership, the United States has the world's strongest, most lethal, and most capable military. Indeed, the most powerful military that this world has ever seen. No longer will the department be distracted by interventionism, endless wars, regime changes, and nation building. Instead, we will put our people's practical, concrete interests first. We will support a policy of actual peace through strength. We will be the sword and shield to deter war with the goal of peace but ready to fight and win the nation's necessary wars if called upon. This is >> stop. Okay. Right. So the important sentence here is we will support a policy of actual peace through strength. What this means is that we will be so mighty. We will be so invincible. We will be so fearless that we will instill fear in others. they'll be so afraid to fight us and therefore we'll have peace. Okay. So it's the idea of hegemony, peace through might, peace through power. We have to demonstrate we are invincible. When people fear us, that's when people will obey us. When people obey us, that's when we have peace. Okay. >> This does not mean isolationism. To the contrary, it means a focused and genuinely strategic approach to the threats our nation faces and how to best manage them. This approach is based on a flexible, practical realism that looks at the world in a cleareyed way which is essential for serving Americans's interests as the national security strategy articulates. This is the common sense approach President Trump has advanced. >> Okay. All right. So, this does not mean isolationism. It's about how to best manage them. So the idea here is that America before was engaging too many wars overseas. It was too spread out. America will now be focused on maintaining and protecting its core strategic interest. That means divide and conquer. Okay? Divide and conquer. Divide and rule. Okay? I'll explain this as we go on. All right? So these are the four strategic interests of United States. Okay. Can you read that? We will defend the homeland and ensure that our interests in the western hemisphere are protected. We will deter China in the Indoacific through strength and not confrontation. We will increase burden sharing with allies and partners around the world. And we will rebuild the US defense industrial base as part of the president's once in a century revival of American industry. >> Okay, so this is it. Okay, this is a plan moving forward and already we're seeing the Americans are doing this. All right. So, uh, we build the US defense industrial base. Okay. Basically means factories and resources. All right. Making sure that America becomes the um arsenal of democracy. Its factories produce all the weapons America needs in order to protect its interests as well as protect its allies. Um, we will increase burden sharing with allies and partners around the world. Okay. This basically means that from now on we're not friends. From now on, we're the boss and you do what we tell you to do. Okay? From now on, we will order Japan, South Korea, Europe, NATO to do what they must in order to protect our power and they must follow us. Basically, a criticism of vaselage. That's number two. Number three is we will deter China in the Indo Pacific through strength, not confrontation. We don't want to destroy China. We don't want to hurt China. But we need China to obey us. And the way to do that is by containing China, strangling China economically and also promoting Japan. Okay? So in the future, China and Japan will balance each other out and that allows us to rule over them, right? In the future, we America will sell resources, weapons and financing to both China and Japan as they compete against each other in East Asia. That's how we will we will contain China. And then the idea of we'll defend the home homeland and ensure that our interests in western hemisphere are protected. Okay. So basically this means that the western hemisphere belongs to America. We'll do whatever we want in the western hemisphere. If you want to come to Western Hemisphere, you need our permission. If you China or Russia, you want to come into Western Hemisphere, you have to get our permission. Yet you have to pay a tax to us. Okay, this is really important. Defend the homeland. Defend the homeland just basically means a police state. Before America was too free and therefore America was too weak. The example is the Vietnam War when the war was not lost in Vietnam. The war was lost at home because you had too many people, too many young men protesting in on the streets. Too many rebels. If we want to win wars, if we want to project strength, if you want to create peace in the world, we need to make sure that our home front is secure. All right? And that means making sure that Americans follow along, do what they're told. Okay? So, uh I'll explain this more as we go along. All right? So, now let's move on to China. Okay. So, so can you can you read ivory? >> Deter China in the indo-acific through strength, not confrontation. President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade, and respectable relations with China. And he has shown that he is willing to engage President Cining directly to achieve those goals. But President Trump has also shown how important it is to negotiate from a position of strength and he has tasked D accordingly. Consistent with the president's approach, D will therefore seek and open a wider range of militarytoilitary communications with the people's liberation army with a focus on supporting strategic stability with Beijing as well as deconliction and deescalation more generally. But we will also be cleareyed and realistic about the speed, scale, and quality of China's historic mil military buildup. Our goal in doing so is not to dominate China, nor is it to strangle or humiliate them. Rather, our goal is simple. To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies. in essence to set the military condition required to achieve the iness goal of a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific that allows all of us to enjoy a decent peace. To that end, as the NSS directs, we will erect a strong denial defense along the first island chain. We will also urge and enable key regional allies and partners to do more for our collective defense. In doing so, we will reinforce the deterrence by denial so that all nations recognize their interests are best served through peace and and restraint. >> Okay. So again, this is a very clear plan. Okay. What this is saying is this. We're going to negotiate with China. We're going to be friends. We have to do so from a position of strength. And so what does that mean? First of it means that we will embargo China. Okay. How can we embargo China? Through the first island chain. Right? The first island chain is Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines. Right? So if you embargo China, it means China cannot access the SH of Malaca, which provides China with 80% of its energy needs, right? And so if you embargo China, China has no choice but to obey you. You're negotiating from position of strength. The other thing is that we're going to enable key regional allies and this of course be Japan uh South Korea uh Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, right? And this creates a sort of malaca. We will have these nations challenge Chinese supremacy in order to create balance, a power balance in East Asia. And once this power balance is created, they all depend on us, United States, because we have energy, we have food, we have weapons, we have financing. Okay. So again, if you just read this, it's very very clear what the United States wants to do and they're already doing it. All right. So this is a conclusion. Okay. Aubrey, can you read please? Taking our nation from the precipice of a world war just a year ago, President Trump is now leading our nation into a new golden age. One defined by putting Americans first in a common sense, pragmatic and concrete way. No longer will we squander Americans will resources and even lives in foolish and grandiose adventures abroad. But we will not retreat. Rather, we will unabashly prioritize Americans as concrete interest with an approach of flexible realism. We will restore the warrior ethos. We will refocus the American military on its core irreplaceable goal of winning the nation's wars decisively. In doing so, as President Trump has so memorably emphasized, our purpose will not be aggression or perpetual war war. Rather, our goal is peace. Peace is the highest good. But not a peace that sacrifices our people's security, freedoms, and prosperity. Rather, a peace that Americans deserve, a noble and proud peace. Fortunately, this peace is compatible with the interests of our potential opponents if they keep their demands reasonable and and cabined. We do not demand their humiliation or submission. Rather, we demand only that they respect our reasonably conceived interests and those of our allies and partners who stand stoutly with us. If we all can acknowledge this, we can achieve a flexible and sustainable balance of power among us and peace. But we at the Department of War will be ready if our gracious offer is burned. We know that wishing for a decent peace is not the same thing as bringing it about. Thus, if our potential opponents are unwise enough to reject our peaceful overtures and choose conflict instead, America's armed force will stand ready to fight and win the nation's wars in ways that make sense for Americans. To ensure that this is the case, the strategy will ensure that we see things and the choices we need to make clearly. We will prioritize addressing the most consequential and grave threats to Americans as interests. We will revamp our network of allies and partners to meet the threats we face. And we will be ready, always carrying the sharpest and most formidable sword, but prepared to offer the olive branch. >> Okay, so this is very clear. Okay, what he's saying is this. Obey us and there will be peace. Defy us and there will be war. Okay, the the key idea is we will prioritize prioritize addressing the most consequential and great threats to Americans interests. Okay. Sorry. Can Can you give back? Okay. So, I want to show you what this means. Basically, it means that from now on, America will adopt um a new strategy. Okay. All right. So, if this ceasefire does not work and war um continues, then we we can expect in round two the fighting will get much worse. Okay? Right. So the Americans will start to target civilian infrastructure including bridges, universities, reservoirs, power plants, dissalation plants. Basically, it will destroy Iran's capacity to be a nation state. In response, the Iranians can destroy a lot more energy infrastructure. Okay. So what it's done now, it's basically closed off the straight of Humus, but it can also close off the Red Sea. Okay. And it can also target pipelines of natural gas. Basically, it can take offline onethird of the world's energy supply. And this would of course cause an economic depression. Okay. Unfortunately, the national security strategy of of the United States doesn't really care. If you just read the national security strategy, they already have factored this in and they don't really care. So the idea is to prioritize strategic interest. And what this basically means is that America has the world's greatest navy. No one else comes close. And so all they have to do is contain the world's choke points and the world must bend to the will of America. Okay? Does that make sense? You're going to trade then you must depend on American generosity. Okay? So already what's happening is that this area it's being closed off but America has made moves to close off other areas as well. So so America's exerting more control over the Panama Canal. Okay. Basically the western hemisphere um is under something called the Donro doctrine. The Don doctrine basically states that America can do whatever it wants in the Western Hemisphere. If you want to come here and trade, you have to go through us. China depends on a lot of resources from the western hemisphere, especially from South America. All right. Over here, something called the lithium triangle. Um, this is Venezuela. Brazil provides China with a lot of agricultural products, soil beans. Basically, what Trump is saying is that, hey, in the future, you want to trade over here, China, you have to go for us. Okay? So, he's basically embarling the western hemisphere from China. Over here is something we call the straight of Malaa. This is the most important choke point in the world especially for East Asia because as you can see the Middle East if it is to access South Korea, China and Japan has to go through the strip of Mala. But guess what guys everything goes through the straight of Mala. And this is important because United States has signed a deal with Indonesia. So, so what we can expect is that America and Indonesia in Indonesia their militaries will start to cooperate more and more. This is move and and that's and the reason why is America is moving towards creating the first island chain basically um in militi militarizing the first island chain in order to deter China to embargo China basically. What we're also seeing is that Japan is now rapidly remilitizing. Uh they're signing more agreements with Australia and other nations. Okay? They're building more weapons. This is all being encouraged by the United States as a deterrent to China. Again, this is really important. America does not want to destroy China. It does not want to d to humiliate China. It wants to control China because the Chinese economy is still very strong and powerful and America wants to make sure that the Chinese are buying more US dollars. Okay, so it is entirely possible what's going to happen is that the Chinese will have no choice but to buy from America. Okay, especially energy. The entire western hemisphere belongs to America and you you want to trade with with western hemisphere then you you need to sign a trade deal with America. Okay. Um what America is also doing that's really important is that it's planning to take over Greenland. Okay. By taking over Greenland, you're blocking access um uh China and Russia cannot access uh the western hemisphere. Okay. for the Arctic. You're also taking seizing control over the Arctic. Okay. And there are lots of um minerals and oil in the Arctic as well. Okay. Um the street of uh Jialter is also another strategic uh choke point and America has signed a deal with Morocco to enhance more cooperation. Okay. So I can see what America is doing is when they mean strategic interest, priorizing strategic interest, what they mean is exerting control over the world's choke points so that they can control global trade. Okay? They're not going to control the entire ocean because it's much too big. But if they control certain choke points like the Middle East, uh the Middle East, um and the Malaka, that's probably enough. Okay. The point is to get China to submit. The point is to control China, not to destroy China. All right, this is important because um if you want to become a major power in the world, you need to trade effectively. So Russia has something called the north south corridor. As you can see, it runs through Iran. Okay, Iran is very important for the Russian north south corridor. Um, and that's why the United States is attacking Iran and that's why the United States is not is not is not going to ever stop attacking Iran because as long as Iran is at peace, Russia can trade with the world. But if R if Iran is being destroyed, there's too much war. This entire region is blocked off from both Russia and China. Okay. Uh Russia is going to call the Belt and Road Initiative. As you can see, okay, from a map, the center of the belt and road initiative is of course Iran. All right. If China wants to access Africa, Europe, the Middle East, it has to go through Iran or it goes through the sea, the straight of Malaca. But as already said, the next step for America is to close off the straight of Malaa as well through Chinese trade. Then where do you go? Well, then you go over to western the western hemisphere, but that's American territory. Okay? Yes, you can trade with Russia. You can trade with Russia. You can do that, but it's not enough for your economy. Doesn't make sense. Right now, China gets about 20% of its oil from Russia. Maybe Russia can provide 30% or 40%. At most, that's very optimistic. But you need But where are you going to get the other 50% 60%. Okay. Your options are very limited. If Iran is at war, can't give you any oil, then you're forced to buy from the United States. Okay? If you're if you're forced to buy from the United States, United States can set the price. It can set terms. It can dictate terms to you. And what the United States will say, you have to buy in US dollars. Okay? And that saves their economy, right? Does it make sense, guys? This this is not a hard idea to understand. This is exactly what it says in the US national security strategy. Okay? So in many ways you can make the argument that what's happening around the world right now it's all an American policy of containing China where in the U these flags are US military bases as you can see China's completely surrounded by US military bases in Japan in South Korea in Taiwan even in uh Indonesia and Malaysia China Philippines China's completely surrounded Okay. And this is it, the street of Mala. This is a major choke point. And as you can see, it's not that hard for America to cut off that choke point, right? You see how much trade goes through the Malaa. You can see how many US bases are are here. And this and you can see a lot of this trade goes to the Middle East. But hey, guess what? The Middle East is at war right now. So no more oil, no more energy, no more LG from the Middle East. So you might go to uh Angola, but this is very important. The Americans have recently announced a naval blockade in the Indian Ocean. Okay? So that's kind of your route as well. So if you're China, yes, um you could rely on Russia, but you see how little this is. Okay, there's too little trade between Russia and China. And you can build it up, but it's going to take you 10 20 years time. And then and what do you do for the next 10 years, right? Your people needs need food to eat. You need energy to fuel your factories. And so for the next 10 years, you have no choice but to work with the United States. And that's what Trump means by negotiating from a position of strength because you can set terms. You can force China to accept whatever terms you want. And quite honestly, if you just look at this map, there's very little that China can do about it. Okay, this is war in the Middle East. There's also this war in Russia, which also absorbs a lot of Russian energy. So Russia doesn't have that much resources to spear to China anyway, but America does, the Western Hemisphere does, okay? Because the Western Hemisphere is at peace. So as long as the Western Hemisphere maintains a fortress, okay? Meaning it it no one can attack uh the Western Hemisphere, then Western Hemisphere can continue to supply resources to the world at war. So this is what the war is about, guys. Okay? It's about creating conflict in the world so the United States can maintain its empire. And the way it maintains its empire is by maintaining its control over global trade. Okay? And the idea is America in the future will provide the world with energy, resources, weapons, and financing. Meaning, we will actually lend you the money to buy this stuff as well. And what do we call this stuff? US dollars. Okay. And so this worked really well in 1950s under something called the Marshall Plan. Okay, the Marshall Plan. Same idea where America made products and it lent money to Europe to buy uh products from America. same concept appear where in the future the world is at war, people are poor, but it's okay because America will lend you money to buy energy resources and weapons from America. Okay? And American factories will go up. America will be great again. Make America great again. All right? Okay. But for this plan to fully work out, America needs three things. Okay? The first thing that it needs to do is create a national draft. Does that make sense, guys? Because you need soldiers in order to maintain America's core interests, right? So, whichever nation is defying you, you go attack, right? The goal is for Russia and Europe to constantly fight each other. The goal is for China and and Japan to constantly fight each other. You and you need Iran to constantly fight with the GCC and Issue. Okay? So, you have these three major conflicts around the world. But if there's any nation that's at peace, well, then you have to create conflicts. Okay? Maybe in Africa, um you also want to control the Western Hemisphere. So, you need soldiers to go and conquer nations that defy you. Okay? Okay. So the first thing that you need is a national draft. All right. Second thing that you need is something called continuity of agenda. What does this mean? It means like now that you have this plan in motion, you cannot have a change in government. Okay? So let's just say they're implementing this plan and they're doing that right now. In 2028, the Democrats win. Well, that would screw things up. Okay? So Trump needs a third term, right? A Trump third term because only he can implement this plan and make America great again. Okay. And the third thing that you need is an AI surveillance state. Basically a AI police state. Why? Because again, this plan can only work if the Americans don't rise up and revolt like they did in the Vietnam War. Okay? If you have a national draft in place, if if Trump's going for a third term, they're going there there's going to be a lot of Americans who are going to protest in the streets, who are going to rebel, right? You can't have that happen. They'll screw things up. Therefore, you need an AI surveillance state in order to help them see the light, right? So, ICE, guys. Okay, ICE. People believe that ICE is being sent to the streets of America in order to catch illegal immigrants. The problem with this is that you don't need ICE. You just need cooperation from the state authorities. Okay. What ICE is really doing is basically um creating conditions for a police state. It's normalizing or making common the idea of armed soldiers patrolling the streets of America in all the major cities. All right. And the reason why why we think this or we can suspect this is look at their budget, man. Look at this budget. Before the budget was kind of stable, then boom, it goes up to 90 $90 billion. That's a lot of money. Okay, that's almost like a new national police force that is only obedient to Donald Trump. It's basically Donald Trump's private police force in order to implement his vision. Okay. Also, data centers, guys. Data centers. Now, I know that some of you are big fans of artificial intelligence, but artificial intelligence doesn't really make any money, right? Chat PT, you don't you can't make money off that. >> You can't make money off digital girlfriends or digital pets, right? So, why is America building all these data centers around the world? In fact, the federal government under Trump has a plan called Operation Stargate where they will build $500 billion. Okay? They would invest $500 billion in building data centers around the United States. Well, you would want to build data centers if you want to create a AI surveillance state, right? where everyone has digital ID, digital currency and where everyone can be monitored to avoid people from rebelling against Trump. Okay? And that is the um idea. Okay? And you um listen to this and you think, "Oh my god, America is doomed or Donald Trump's going to become king for the rest of his life. There's nothing we can do." Well, the problem is this. The problem is that this idea of imperial conquest, it's actually not a new idea, guys. Okay, it really isn't. Empires have been doing this for a long, long time. It has not worked out well. Okay. So the goal again to summarize is to create a situation where you have greater North America or what they call the technate. Okay. And this becomes a fortress. You have infinite resources, infinite manpower and you can sell weapons, uh resources and financing to the rest of the world. And you want to create as much conflict in the world as possible. Right? So here it'll be between China and Japan. Here it'll be between Iran, Israel, and the GCC. Okay? Here it will be between Europe and Russia. Basically, you want a world forever at war so that you can control the world. And all America has to do is control key choke points. Okay? key strategic choke points like the show of Malaa uh Hussear Panama. Why? Because once you control the choke point, you can control which nations get what resources. If if a nation is is becoming too strong, you give them less resources. If a nation is too weak, you give them more resources. And as a result, you can always maintain the balance of power in each region. Right? So, it sounds like a great plan, but it's not going to work out. Why? Well, because of something called nationalism. Okay? Because when you do this, when you are an empire and you impose your will on other nations, these nations are not happy about it. Right? So imagine Japan, South Korea, Europe there. People know that they're being used, right? So eventually they'll be like screw this. We want to be independent. We want peace. So they will eventually rise up against the empire. And the way they will do this is they will work together to destroy America or basically to remove America from the world. You can't you can't actually attack America. Now what America can do is say screw you. We're the entire western hemisphere. We have infinite resources. We can make infinite weapons and you can never attack us. So we'll come and attack you. Okay. They could do that. The problem then is you have division and corruption. Okay. So an empire in decline always suffers from corruption and division. Corruption just means that yes, you've allocated $1.5 trillion to making weapons, but guess what? The vast majority of that will be stolen by people, right? The America America right now is is in a lot of trouble because it's a very corrupt place. Division means that uh the Democrats and Republicans fight all the time. What we call political political polarization. So it is possible that as America is being asked to fight more wars overseas, you have civil war in America. The other thing is when America takes over the entire North America including Canada, Greenland, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, um Honduras, they won't be happy about it. Okay? So you're going to have insurgencies. All right? And this three problems, nationalism, corruption, and division means that when America actually tries to implement this plan, it's going to backfire. It's going to it's going to accelerate the collapse of the American empire, right? And then you ask yourself, okay, if historically we know that empires will collapse, why do they do this? And the answer is because it benefits them in the short term. Okay, this is a short-term solution that creates long-term problems, but who cares about the long term? Let's just enjoy the short term. Okay? All right. Does that make sense? Okay. Um, any questions? >> But for the war between Iran and >> America, you previously said that America will lose the war. But, uh, according to the analysis that you just did, like America will try to control nations around China and those nations, but it will finally backfire. So the result of that predictions will still be America will lose right. >> Um yeah. So so again the major prediction is that America may in the short term seem as though it is winning but in the long term because of corruption, division and nationalism, America will be forced to retreat back to the western hemisphere and it will lose its empire. All right. And yes um America will lose the war in Iran. Okay. and be forced to retreat from Iran. It but it doesn't really have to win the war. It doesn't have to defeat Iran. It just has to make Iran constantly in a state of of chaos and war. Okay? Does that make sense? Because the point is to control the choke points. Okay? The key are the choke points. This is these are these are the keys. This is what America must protect. And what happens in Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Iran doesn't really matter. What? But what America wants to do is create as much chaos as possible in these places so that they depend on America for resources, for financing, for weapons. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. America doesn't really care anymore if it loses its war in Iran. That's that's not the big that's not the point. The point is to maintain control over the strategic control points so the world depends on American resources to survive. Okay. Yeah. Does China or any other countries uh discerns that America is trying to control the trade route of China? Oh, look. Okay. What America is doing is obvious. All right. It's it's silly. It's it's really obvious to people, right? There's nothing you can do about it. There's nothing you can do about it because America has a blue water navy that controls the oceans. So the question then is what happens what happens in the long term? Well, in the long term what what's going to happen is that Russia uh Russia will challenge America in these choke points. Okay. And this already happening in Cuba. Okay. Cuba is here and right and we we'll discuss this next class but Cuba is under embargo right now and Cuba is trying to uh become closer with Russia. Okay. So what Russia is going to do is set up basically its own navy to challenge the American Navy and Russia cannot win against the American Navy but what it can do is fight a war of attrition against the American Navy raising cost. Okay that's number one. Number two is that if American can go and blow up energy supplies around the world to make the world more dependent on America, well, Russia can also blow up energy supplies to make the world dependent on Russia. Okay? So, what's going to happen is that Russia and America are going to compete against each other. All right? And most of the world is ultimately going to side with Russia in order to balance United States because United States is too much of a bully. And at this point, in the short term, China has no choice but to work with both Russia and America because China is not strong enough to challenge either. Does that make sense? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Alan, >> so my question is about how Trump going to uh going to like deal with the internal conflict in American like there's right now he only had like 37% of uh supporting rate and and Democrats seems didn't agree with his plan. So how he going to do about this and uh what is um if Democrat party doesn't agree with Trump's plan what is the plan of Democrat to American? >> Okay. Yeah. So first of all Democrats have no plan. Okay. This this is why Americans in so much trouble because America the Democrats have actually no plan of themselves. Okay. So even if the Democrats were to win office in 2028, what they'll probably do is continue Trump's plan because they themselves don't have any plan. Trump's plan to stay in power is just basically cheat. He'll cheat. Okay? He'll rip the elections. He'll he'll cheat. That's that's his plan moving forward. And he'll probably get away with it. Okay. Okay. Any more questions, guys? All right. So, we'll continue this next class.