Why did the US-Iran war ceasefire talks collapse? | The Global Story

What I think is that we're going to end up with a great deal. >> Why did the Iran war negotiations collapse >> and uh I think we're in a very strong negotiating position to do what other presidents should have done during a 47-year period. >> There'd been on again offagain speculation as to whether talks in Pakistan would actually go ahead until late Tuesday. Donald Trump posted on social media that the two-week ceasefire with Iran would be extended with no end date given and the blockade of Iranian ports would continue indefinitely. >> And so this meant the talks in Islamabad were over. Was this a failure of diplomacy or a power play? From the BBC in London, I'm Asma Khaled. >> And I'm Tristan Redmond. And this is the Global Story on YouTube. Well, Paul, you're there in Islamabad, Pakistan. Uh there were supposed to be these talks between uh the Americans and the Iranians and and as we all know, uh those talks didn't materialize as of this point. And so it it kind of feels like you're at a party where the guests of honor never showed up. How's it been, Paul? >> Yeah. And where the host is deeply deeply disappointed. I mean this was such a matter of pride for the uh for the Pakistani authorities. They really felt that if they could broker some kind of deal between Iran and the United States that that somehow would you know would have a hugely enhancing effect on Pakistan's international reputation. They they build themselves as the one country that had good contacts in both Washington and Tehran. They thought that they could make this happen. Everything about the way this city was being prepared with huge chunks of it being shut off, roads being closed, uh a big red zone in the middle, uh with hotels being evacuated, you know, it all felt like they were getting ready for a big deal. And in fact, we all thought it was going to happen because we watched, you know, American C17s coming in bringing who knows what. You know, there was all kinds of speculation. >> I didn't realize that was already there. Then the prep was was there on the American side. the prep may still be here for all we know. You know, there could there could be a bunch of presidential limousines sitting out at a military air base just on the off chance that this still happens. But right now, you do get this slightly crushing sense of disappointment that somehow this has eluded Pakistan's grip. >> I mean, you had a lot of political reporters in Washington following, well, why is JD Vance not yet on that plane? I mean, all day in Washington. We were hearing we were hearing that the pool was out there at Andrew Andrews Air Force Base getting ready to board the plane only to be told you know wait you had Steve Wickoff and Jared Kushner apparently flying up from Florida to join uh JD Vance talk of all kinds of last minute strategy meetings in the White House but at some point late yesterday clearly they thought this isn't going to happen uh this right now uh the Iranians for their own reasons are not showing up. You know, it is one of those things where uh the Americans needed to see signs that the that the Iranians were were were about to leave Thran and the Iranians wanted to see the Iran the Americans in the air. Of course, the Iranians have the advantage of being many many hours closer to Islamabad than Washington. So, they were able in some ways to play this uh and I think they did. Um, there's an interesting video doing the rounds which I think is the latest bit of social media fun uh being produced by the Iranians in which you see Donald Trump waiting saying that they're going to have great talks but facing a row of empty chairs. Um, he he uh he finally loses his temper and then there's a caption that says 2,000 years later a message comes from the Iranians saying stop shouting. Um, and Donald Trump caves and says okay well you can have an extended ceasefire. The Iranians are having a bit of fun with this, but this is of course no laughing matter. This is, you know, there there are hugely important issues at stake for both sides. >> So, there was a lot of back and forth all day long, a lot of guessing on whether the Americans or the Iranians would would show up on Tuesday. And then at 4:15 East Coast time in Washington DC, we see a message posted online by President Trump. But I'm going to read part of this message because I do think it's really worthwhile to to dissect it. He said it is >> based on the fact that the government of Iran is seriously fractured. And then he goes on to say, "We have been asked to hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal." Uh it's a much longer message, right? There's a lot of other details in there, but those two details to me were really they caught my attention because it made me wonder, well, why did these talks really not materialize from the American side? The president of the United States seems to be saying, well, the Iranians aren't unified. They're not really bringing us a concrete proposal. Is that the crux of why they fell apart from your perspective on the American side? >> Well, I mean, yeah, seriously fractured and unified proposal. You're absolutely right to highlight those two phrases. Now, either uh Washington wants everyone to think that the regime in Iran is weak, it's at sixes and sevens, it doesn't know which way to move, or this reflects a genuine concern in Washington, which is being voiced, by the way, not just by uh by the administration, but also by many Iran watchers, which is what exactly is going on in Thran. Um, you know, Donald Trump loves to trumpet the fact that he's achieved regime change. Um, and maybe all he's achieved is regime fracture. And that is a that is a rather dangerous place to be because in the old days, you know, six weeks ago, you had a supreme leader who clearly called the shots, who determined everything that was happening. when you had negotiations with the Iranians, you know, you think back to the negotiations that resulted in the 2015 uh Iran nuclear deal, you kind of knew what the what the what the format was, who the players were, the interlocutors. The Iranians are supremely effective uh and efficient negotiators. They're they're tough. They're they do play for time, but you kind of knew who you were dealing with. There's a slight sense now that the Americans don't know who they're dealing with. Are they dealing with a new supreme leader? If so, where is he and what state is he in? >> Um, has there been a kind of military coup in Thran in which now, frankly, everything is decided by the revolutionary guards? Uh, and that everyone else is sort of is is secondary to that. It is difficult to know precisely what is going on. Various people have pointed out that when the first round of negotiations happened here, what 10 days or so ago, >> the Iranians brought 80 people with them. Now, only about 30 of those people, an absolutely vast one. Now, they were all described as the delegation, >> but actually probably only about they people say only about 30 of them were properly members of the delegation. others were, you know, hardline newspaper commentators and and and and you know, an assortment of of of other people. And that one theory and this is just a theory that I'm repeating here is that at a time when Iran feels under enormous pressure has been absolutely hammered in all sorts of ways since the very end of February there is a need to to make everyone a part of the the debate a part of the discussion and a part of the outcome. And so you would have in the talks people who are highly skeptical. They're, you know, they're US hawks and and if they're in the room, if they're part of the delegation, they will be part of the outcome, too. >> Sharing the blame and the credit, so to speak. >> Sharing the blame and the credit. And so that I think is certainly part of why the the talks didn't happen this week. The other part, and this is what the Iranians say, is that they felt that the Americans were not serious. They felt that having offered to reopen uh the straight of Hormuz only for Donald Trump to say, you know what, I'm keeping my blockade of Iranian ports going that that indicated that frankly the Americans were a not interested in in a deal and b actually trying to engineer another breakdown uh and and a resumption of hostilities. So, you know, that that that goes some way to you know, if you like officially accounting for Iran's reluctance to get on the plane. Can I put to you a third possible permutation of the truth social post that Asthma just read out? Paul, I'd love to know what you make of it. It's the possibility that actually uh the Iranian negotiators might have outmaneuvered the Americans here and that Donald Trump's uh truth social post is a is a face saving device. I mean, Asthma, for example, pointed out um quite purpose perspeaciously earlier on that uh it was a very carefully um written truth social post and not in the Donald Trump style. It didn't sound like it comes from him and he does >> there's a lot more bombastic messages we've seen over the years as someone who's covered the president, right? This the style, the tone of it felt a lot more measured is all I'll say. >> Do you think it might be a face- saving device? >> I I I look I think it is. I mean, I think it's a device to to buy some time clearly. Um, you know, let's not forget a couple of big dates in Donald Trump's diary. He's got the king arriving on Monday. >> Um, that is a big deal for Donald Trump. >> Uh, and that he's going to China to meet President Xi what a couple of weeks after that. Does he really want to be at war with Iran when either of those thing two things happen? He he most certainly does not. I think the feeling a few days ago here was there's not going to be a big all-encompassing deal. The idea that somehow the nuclear issue and the and and the new issue of the straight of Hormuz can be negotiated away in a couple of sessions, even long sessions, was frankly for the birds. But maybe some kind of memorandum of understanding uh a a an agreement that would essentially end the war but kick all the the tough issues uh ahead. that that was perhaps the most uh likely perhaps the preferable outcome of any negotiation. So um absent that uh he's gone for for something that is a kind of hybrid. It's neither a declaration of peace because he still has you know a robust uh blockade of Iranian ports in force. Um but nor is it a you know a development in on the on the negotiating front either. It's a kind of odd hybrid. So we do now have essentially an open-ended ceasefire uh and and and uh you know the possibility of a resumption of negotiations. Now the question is when and where will those take place? Will they still be here as the Pakistanis fondly hope? >> There's been interesting stuff coming out of Tehran in the last few days suggesting that they are more than a little frustrated with what they see as Pakistan's failures. They don't see Pakistan as being a kind of downthe-middle honest broker. They are conscious that when uh the Pakistani prime minister Shabbaz Sharif announced the ceasefire, the wording of his tweet at that time uh and the way it all came out rather implied that the US and Pakistan between them uh were inviting uh Iran Iran to to to a ceasefire. They think that the Pakistanis are bending over backwards to accommodate US interests and some commentators have been going on Iranian TV pointing out that they do not think that Pakistan is an honest broker. Now that obviously is very damaging for Pakistan which really wants to be seen as precisely that and it does make you wonder you know if and when there is another round will it be Pakistan hosting I think at the moment it's the only show in town >> uh would we see Oman getting back into the into the mediating game >> negotiating originally right before the the the strikes on Iran began? They were and of course they rather angered the White House by suggesting that not only was a deal on the table. Yeah. But that the US negotiators Steve Witoff and Jared Kushner either didn't understand the issues involved or chose to misrepresent them >> setting the scene for the outbreak of of the war literally within you know what 24 hours of the breakdown of those talks. So you know Oman felt uh burned by that. So at the moment it's it's not clear who or how or when or even if any of this is going to resume. >> You know to your point about why the talks didn't materialize and the lack of trust that the Iranians have for the for the Trump administration. Our colleague Lee Ducet has been reporting from Iran this week and earlier in the week she interviewed a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry Ismael Bahi who we understand was in the room for the last round of talks and and he essentially spoke to this point. >> So far no decision has been made. Um and I think the reason is very clear because of the confusing messages we have been receiving from the United States. Um literally speaking there have been um many violations of ceasefire. You know that during the course of the past two days they have um attacked uh Iranian vessels. They have taken hostage uh uh our people on board Wel Tuska and at the same time they're continuing with their uh threats of war crime, threats of genocide, bombing our bridges and um power plants. So this is not the behavior of a country that is really serious about a diplomatic process. >> What do you think of that, Paul? >> He's not the only one pointing out mixed messages from the White House. >> Um, and you know, blustering rhetoric, apocalyptic rhetoric one day and then offers of ceasefire the next. it it it you know it may be designed to throw everyone off, but for the Iranians who have their own sense of how these things should be conducted and they are sticklers for the details um uh this is this is discombobulating to say the least and it it it all helps to create an impression that the White House is not serious. So, you know, I I think it's it's it it's it's not at all surprising to hear him talk in in those terms. Um, of course, you know, he is glossing over the fact that it was Iran that that that turned the straight of Hammuz into a weapon uh in this war. I think the United States has uh and the Trump administration has kind of thrown them off their game by saying, "I see your blockade and I raise you." Um and you know it was the I think the fact that now you have two blockades in place each one ex uh inflicting pain one on the Iranian economy and one on the global economy >> um is is is has complicated matters for Iran. Uh it feels that this weapon that it is uh utilized so effectively has somehow been turned around and used uh against it. Uh and so we do have this situation in which um yeah they they feel that uh they don't quite they just as the Americans don't quite know what Iran is up to I think Iran doesn't quite know what America is up to and certainly doesn't trust them. >> We're speaking to you on Wednesday and the original ceasefire was supposed to expire on Wednesday. Uh it had a twoe timeline, a twoe time frame. Um, this new extension we've seen announced by President Trump doesn't seem to have a timeline. And it is amidst all that uncertainty that we're also seeing reports from Iranian media that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has seized ships near the Strait of Harm. I I guess I'm wondering what does that all mean in terms of escalation or deescalation? >> Look, you know, we are seeing kinetic activity in the Gulf by both sides. each side has fired on vessels uh that you know that it it regards as having breached the the conditions or the terms of their own blockades. That is a combustible situation. Right now it is only combustible on the water. Uh but I think you would have to be a pretty bold person to put a bet on this not escalating into a resumption of hostilities. Israel, who we haven't really mentioned, would dearly like to finish the job as it sees it. Uh, and and and is and is pretty apprehensive at the thought of some kind of negotiated deal sort of in the middle of a war which is unfinished. Um, this is not a this is not a this is not a settled steady ceasefire. This is one with all sorts of reasons why it could go wrong. Um, that doesn't mean that we won't see maybe even in the coming days another attempt to get everyone around the table, but we're not seeing that just yet. >> Well, Paul, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. >> Thanks so much, Paul. >> You're welcome. >> That's it for The Global Story on YouTube. Thanks for tuning in. And if you appreciated our episode today, then I should mention that our show, The Global Story, is also an audio podcast. You can find us every weekday on BBC.com or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.