Andrew Marr’s full analysis of the election results

very grateful Andrew Mah presenter of tonight with Andrew Mah of course on LBC has amazingly been quiet for about the last 9 minutes of first >> bigfooted by Nigel Farage it may happen again >> right I warn you now we will not be going to the news at 9:15 because I've got Andrew Mer opposite me and there's so much to discuss where do you want to start comrade >> well I think let's start with a calm middle of the road predictive sort of position which is that as we sit here now Nigel Farage is going to be the next prime minister I think we are on course for a reform victory at the next election. They might they might have Tories uh propping them up or not but the way things are very interesting listening to Farage just now >> um both in your interview and what he was saying in Havering kept kept talking about geography. >> Yeah. >> And that is the crucial part of tonight of what's happening today which is that they are indeed becoming a national party. They are winning all over the place. Now, the early wins have been in Labour's traditional northern heartlands, and that's part of, you know, the Brexit story, part of Boris Johnson's leveling up. It's been going on for an awful long time, but they're winning there, and they're winning in the Tory heartlands across the southeast of England as well. You put that together, you're asking him, can he win an overall majority without London in effect? And the answer is he probably can. And the big questions for the other parties are, do they maintain their position? Do they try to maintain their position as big national movements or do they withdraw to their heartlands and their comfort zone? Now that's going to be very very important in what happens in the Labour party I think because you know who knows what Karma is going to do. I mean he said you know I'm not going to walk away. He said I'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos. >> Yes. And they've sent a message about the pace of change. >> Pace of change. we carry on striding in the same direction and his resolve remains absolutely unchanged and there'll be an awful lot of Labour MPs I'm afraid today saying Kia Kia let your resolve flop down a little bit don't be so resolved don't uh do walk away because I I was talking to a a leading pollster I won't say who who makes a very very simple point he says the Labour party has this issue um if you have a leader who because of their deep unpopularity in the country and that is what is coming out all across the UK Okay. Their deep unpopularity can't win you a general election. You have a choice. You either get rid of the leader, you change the leader, or you accept that you're going to lose the general election. Which is it? And that in in a sense is what is what's confronting Labour MPs today? >> Let's refer back to what we heard from Mr. Farage. I think you were listening in the in the other studio. A reshaping in British politics and we have professionalized the party. You've touched on the former of those in what you said. Is the party now professional operation? Well, we'll see. It's very interesting. He also, you know, he talked about we've got lots of old lags, old lags in the party and they've got, you know, Tory retreads and this and that, people who are in UKIP and so on, but they've got an awful lot of people who are, as it were, amateurs in politics, new to politics, and some of them will have said stupid things and some of them will be called up for it and there'll be lots and lots of problems the other parties make hay with. But I think that kind of underestimates the nature of a kind of popular uprising going on here all around the country. And I think that is what we are beginning to see. Um, as it were, you know, it's all all across uh the English uh countryside, you're seeing groups of local people thinking we can do it better than we than the Tories. We can do it better than Labor or the Liberal Democrats. We're going to do it as it were for ourselves. I think that is the energy that is the petrol that is driving Farage today. >> Labour appear appear to have conceded that they have lost Wales. If that is the case, how seismic is that, Andrew? Well, um, as you're hearing just now, it is seismic just because of the importance of Wales in Labor history. Ny Bever, Neil Kinuk, and all of that. There will be a lot of people, including Neil, absolutely dejected and very, very angry today. Uh, some of them blame Kia Stalmer and the current direction of the Labour Party. Some >> um I think I think it's clearly part of the story. You can't put it to one side. I think to be fair to Stalmer, you know, he inherited a nightmarish position in terms of the weakness of the economy and the international threats. Um, but he then made things much much much harder for himself by tying himself to those tax and borrowing promises during the course of the general election, which meant that he had very very little room for maneuver. And so, in a sense, since then, he has been looking at the mercy of events rather than really reshaping the country. Um, >> I know you're on and I'm going to tell everybody you've got a special show tonight. So, I will let you go fairly soon because you obviously want thinking about that. I need to get a word for you on Chem Badnock and The Conservatives. Andrew, >> well, she hasn't had a great day either. I mean, her her ratings are are doing better. She's doing better in the House of Commons. Um, she is cutting through. Very interesting that James Cleverly, who I think is the most talented and eloquent of her shadow cabinet. Um, and did of course, you know, think about the leadership for himself, talked about himself being in her slipstream. Very very interesting word that that suggests that she has complete as it were loyalty inside her shadow cabinet. Not the case of course when Robert Genrich was still there. So she's in a better position. But frankly if the Tories lose Essics, if the Tories lose suffer and all those parts of the English Southeast then they are in almost as much trouble as Labour. >> Someone who has forgotten more about voting systems than I'll ever know. Andrew Mah is part first pass the post passed it. >> Yes it absolutely is. We now have first passed the post to remind people is basically an electoral system founded on two things. The importance of geography you have to be the person for your area and secondly um that you want a very clear decisive one party wins and another party loses. It's based on two parties swinging. It's a bicycle made for two. And we now have five cyclists on the bicycle in England and six cyclists on the bicycle in Wales and in Scotland. And we are we are entering a completely new uh political landscape. Nick, I think um we are going to see a big uh sort of group on the right of British politics, including reform and the conservatives versus a group on the left of British politics, certainly involving Labor and the Lib Dems, possibly even the Greens. Two great coalitions fighting. So we're going to be into a world of deals and pacts and arrangements and all of those and red lines that we are not used to. We have entered continental politics but without continental voting systems. >> Uh they've dragged an extra shift out of you tonight. Is that right? >> They do. What are you going to be talking about from brutal brutal tough will be nothing to talk about to be I mean to be just serious to people listening you know there are huge numbers of results still to come. We don't know about London. There are strong indications that Labour have done much better in London perhaps than they feared and that the green surge hasn't been quite as big as we expected. And I think by the way just one other thing to say here we have two kinds of populism now in this country Nick. We have the populism of the right Nigel Farage you've just heard and there is a kind of as it were competing populism of the left and I would call it populism because in both cases there are kind of big big villains to be to be attacked. In the case of reform it's migrants and people coming in from this country and in the case of Greens it's all these is the wicked rich. Um, and I think what's interesting is that the populism of the right, it goes back to the Brexit vote you were talking about and UKIP and then reform is much more strongly entrenched and Nigel Farage is a much more understood leader in this country than is Zach Palansky. And the the green populism is younger um more um difficult to analyze at this stage and I think less deeply rooted. So we have at least two populisms and I think in London Labour will hold off green uh voters a bit better partly perhaps because of the anti-semitism rise. I don't know. >> Yeah. >> Um and so that's all still to come. Scotland still to come. Scotland absolutely crucial. We haven't talked a lot about that on the show but >> if uh if the SNP win a single vote majority in Hollywood one one MSP >> then they will call for a referendum. And uh we have to ask ourselves whether Labour in London at the moment going through the turmoil they're going to be going through are strong enough to hold that off. Um and we've heard um reform. We've heard Nigel Farage say that they have a right. They may have a right. It's not an unreasonable request. So we would be heading then towards debating the entire future of the uh the United Kingdom again. Um if that happens, we'll have to wait for that. We'll have to wait for Wales. >> All right. So much to discuss tonight. Andrew Mah from absolute privilege having you in today Andrew. >> It's a privilege to be here. Shall we just ingratiate each other for a bit? >> Andrew, tonight I will try, listen, but I'm going to be honest with you. There's a bit of a a Fleet Street old lags lunch and you know what a Fleet Street old lag. So I might not be tuning. >> Just be you'll just be getting going at 6. I understand. I do >> just be ordering the dangerous third bottle. Andrew Mah appearing here on LPC.