Iran War Week 5: The Controlled Reset — Markets Signal The Outcome | 3 April 2026

Hello, you sovereign wealth builders, Simon Dixon here, and welcome to another episode of Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live. For the last 4 weeks, we've been really honing in on the Iran war. We covered what happened in week one, week two, week three, week four, and really there's nothing new to say other than more confirmation around the market dynamics at work, which I'll just give a quick recap on tonight. Um I'm going to be going through effectively just a few bits of a market update, and also we're going to be playing a podcast that I gave in London before we had the jet fuel crisis issue. Um so, it was covering the latest in Bitcoin macro and geopolitics. Um and it was with Archie from Bitcoin Archives. Um and I went through uh all the different things. It's really a grand macro recap of exactly what's happening right now on all those fronts, so that we can zoom out a little bit because we've been heavily zoomed in into the micro. So, firstly, let's do a bit of a recap on everything and the markets that I'm looking at in order to make my assessments on how to prepare and what comes next. So, firstly, there is a large global macro agenda. Let's call it the global reset. This is the World Economic Forum, you will own nothing and be happy. The technical industrial complex ushering in their Orwellian 1984 nightmare. It consists of social credit scores, carbon credit tokens, artificial intelligence, um central bank digital currency, stable coins, things that I've talked a lot about over the years. If you want to have a recap of this topic, um go to my blog simondixon.com and check out an interview where I was invited by Catherine Austin Fitts. Um she was recently featured on Tucker Carlson. Um and uh I gave really into the detail of many of those technologies. Um and you can find that on my blog. Just um type in the name, or you can find it on my YouTube channel as well. Um that's the big macro thing, the global reset. That involves the repricing event, and the trigger for this has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, the um you know, the agenda will be either weaponized or you believe is coordinated. I explain by following the money how these things are more coordinated. You may believe that it's a reaction to events that are unfolding. It doesn't really matter. Following the money is the you know, how we got you ahead of all this stuff, years ahead. Even way back, if you remember the Russia-Ukraine war when I did those emergency broadcasts, um and I was saying that this would create that inflationary cycle, um and then that would lead to eventually the installation of Trump. Uh Trump will usher in the Iran war. Um and then I talked about how the tariff policy potentially reversed that need because everything was being achieved, but it appears we needed this big global reset. Um so, I talked about the play-by-play of the coordination of the 12-day war. Um and uh I thought we were going to have another one of those, but no, we've done something much bigger. Uh this is Operation Warp Speed 2.0 to effectively reprice all commodities and all energy and achieve effectively 2 years of slow change in one fell swoop. Um so, that's exactly what we're witnessing right now. Now, when you go a layer down, you have the geopolitical side. Uh this is effectively the Western captured governments um that are captured by the lobbies, the financial industrial complex, the military industrial complex, and the technical industrial complex, uh primarily, that I've been covering. Um they are ushering in this multipolar world, um and we're seeing right now all the trends play out in real time. Um you've got America that is effectively vassalizing Europe and the Western Hemisphere, um and shrinking America into a regional power, but presenting it as if it's MAGA and world domination and building um the you know, the greatest um American empire in order to satisfy the QAnon's and the MAGA Anon's um type of narrative. Um when really what is happening here? Well, you're seeing effectively the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, um which eventually will be normalizing with Iran via China. We've started to see that there was meetings in Pakistan. Uh China put together a five-point framework. US gave a 15-point plan that involved JCPOA on steroids, where effectively Iran can still have a um civilian nuclear program. Um and effectively um you know, uh just really the 15 points. Iran came back with their six points, which involved the expulsion of the US from the Middle East. This gets declined. Uh we have a lot of market manipulation in between, but nothing stops this train. Um we've got the financial industrial complex vision of regional stability, and then the legacy military industrial complex that is represented by radical Zionists in Israel that work for military contractors and military profits, uh the evangelical Christians, neocons, Zionists uh within uh within America uh that think they're strengthening the dollar and America is still the global hegemon, kind of represented by Lindsey Graham and those types of cartoon characters. Um and then the hardline of factions of the IRGC, which effectively have the death to America, death to Israel narrative that created the strategic tension um that uh basically created trillions of dollars of money printing and profits for the military industrial complex, leading to the forever war. You need to expel those in one operation. Um now, the military industrial complex old model is resisting against the financial industrial complex, which is why I believe this transition from a theatrical 12-day war to something more extreme, um which is uh then the bigger trend of the global reset as well. But still, the outcome is the same, multipolarity. Um the Middle East becomes West Asia. Iran uh is uh you know, infrastructure weakened in order to create a China dependency. Uh the GCC vassalizes Israel, creates a Palestinian state, um but we're at then getting the economic weakness of the GCC is accelerated by expelling all the US operations, US ties, so that all those contracts can be renegotiated. We're already starting to see, you know, for example, Saudi Arabia, they formed a new defense uh pact with Pakistan, Turkey. I think that will be integrated into Egypt, too. Um you then started to see interesting things where Trump came out and said kiss my ass to MBS, effectively. Um and then suddenly Zelenskyy comes over to the Gulf countries. They have vast experience of dealing with asymmetric war with Russia in terms of drones and um missiles. Um and so, you started to see a uh kind of defense pact, which I translate as as Ukraine becomes more and more vassalized, you brain drain NATO into the Gulf countries um by define by um kind of pushing over those um intel. And really, the only country that has direct experience from NATO technology, US technology, and battle-tested against um uh Russian uh missiles and drones and various other things that happened, which kind of set the framework for this asymmetric war with Iran, um Israel, and US. But obviously, we know that these are the corporate power factions that we've covered, and I'll cover that more in the podcast, give an update on these changes. Um combine that together, and effectively the Middle East becomes West Asia. Uh the GCC and BRICS align through normalization with China, um and they the growth becomes the global south, and then you have the build back better opportunities, which the financial industrial complex is using their vassal states like UAE, India, to try and get as big a grip on as possible, and Israel, um while they we enter into this new transition, which really, I believe right now, happened. I originally thought it would happen in April with the Xi Jinping and Trump meeting at the China summit, but that got canceled and moved to May. Um then we had these very theatrical micro announcements um with uh Trump and the markets. So, let's jump into those right now. So, prior to this war, what were the trends? The trends were the dollar was weakening relative to gold, silver, and DXY, which is a basket of currencies like the euro, uh the pound, uh the Swiss franc, the Japanese yuan, um sorry, the Japanese yen, um and various other uh currencies. Now, that was weakening. That was effectively strategically transitioning away from the petrodollar, the eurodollar, and the Japan carry trade as the Bank of Japan increased its interest rates um and started going off on its own eastward-facing path. Uh prior to that, we had tariffs, which drove everyone into BRICS. We had massive mergers and acquisitions. Uh the tax was paid primarily by the US small business. The large multinationals had transnational relationships to hedge out their exposure. Um and the export dependent countries got gobbled up into transnational capital um and uh you know, these uh these larger multinational institutions. And so and then everybody negotiated with China, America looked crazy. Uh Trump says he's taking on the deep state, which is everything that props up the dollar. So you get that weakening of the dollar. Um and then you get fiscal dominance where effectively you're printing your way to devaluing the debt and that creates a massive stock market stimulus but dumps all the debt on the American people. You get the K-shaped economy, you get wealth inequality um and that creates the environment for civil unrest and then external wars and then you weaponize that through the technical industrial complex. All the things that we've been um discussing over the years. Then the Iran war came and it became much bigger than I originally anticipated in terms of the goals. Uh the end goal is the same but it accelerated. So we still end up in multipolarity, we still end up shrinking America to a regional power but it reversed all the macro trends. So the dollar started strengthening because immediately the countries that um were are pegged to the dollar went into stress, i.e. the Gulf countries. So in order to protect their peg to the dollar, they had to sell a lot of US Treasuries. They didn't have much of them. So they were accumulating US equities. The market corrected because the Gulf countries um no longer are acquiring those US equities. They stopped buying US Treasuries. So they're selling down their US Treasuries, which is why the yields and the cost of the American debt is going up. Um but they also had to probably sell down gold. I think that created a correction in the price. Also, the market was signaling that this would be over quickly. Now the Trump speech last night said another two to three weeks. We don't know what to believe. We don't believe him but the market is still signaling that um I always said this would be a this is going to be a a long-term disaster into an extended war if both oil and gold go up at the same time. But at the moment those those those relationships are not staying. Gold every time it looks like we're going to go into and continue the war um starts to weaken rather than strengthen. So you've obviously got those trends. It had a big run, it was overpriced. Uh you have the pegs that need to be defended but also there's not that exodus into gold, which implies that the smart money believes this will be over in a reasonable time frame. They recognize the global reset. So pri- the private corporation big oil are profiteering from that trend uh but it's not leading to that um that exodus away. But what is actually happening? When the war happened, you had the strengthening of the dollar. You had the renegotiation that helped big oil. You dump all the debt on the American people. So the debt gets bigger. A few small companies benefit from it. You get the MAGA narrative that we're helping America but the oil is not nationalized and the energy is not nationalized. In fact, some of those private companies I said the ownership structure is 70% Qatar and 30% Exxon on some of those liquefied natural gas contracts. Um but who does have nationalized oil and energy? Iran and Russia. So Iran and Russia are benefiting from the higher prices. They got the sanction relief in order to get the price of oil down and so they're able to sell into that while their infrastructure is strategically being targeted um as we enter into this transitionary phase. Obviously China's going to be re-getting those rebuild contracts um and there'll be localized manufacturing as well, probably Turkey um and various other things. But obviously this pushes GCC and Iran into BRICS and Iran is a member of BRICS um as well. Uh but there will also be the negotiation between the financial industrial complex being involved in those rebuild contracts. But you have effectively when the war is believed to be moving towards World War III, which I still don't believe it will be, there will be a deal. This will make the transition. Uh the reason is is because the straight closer creates a doom loop for the American economy. Um we have state of emergency in Asia and Europe um and uh if you get that into too much demand destruction, you get a global recession. If this were if the straight were closed for another month, another two months, another six months, guaranteed global distress um depression, demand destruction um and counterintuitive to the goals of the financial industrial complex, which is why the military are squeezing everything they can and creating the next war zones as they transition away uh from this forever war in the Middle East. But you have the weakening of gold when it looks like it's World War III. Uh you have the price of oil never going above that $115. You have disjointed between American oil WTI, Brent crude global, and Middle Eastern oil in Oman, which is like, you know, those three-tiered pricing. That's creating arbitrage opportunities to sell into different markets. So for example, America uh could sell into um you know, the higher prices of Brent crude in Europe in order to sign those uh greater contracts. It creates problems within US and we're starting to already see jet fuel issues globally including the US. Um that is leading to the the lockdown narrative um you know, uh states of emergency, preserve your energy. I covered all the market updates on my blog and on YouTube, you know, into smaller ones each day I've been doing as well. Um but you're getting the strengthening of the dollar. Uh gold's not creating an exodus, so weakening slightly. Um you get uh oil going to those higher prices, which causes inflation and eventually can only have demand destruction because there is a structural um lack of oil that's needed for all of this production. Um and the markets um you know, the the markets are effectively having all the volatility trade in the stock markets but most importantly, the cost of the US rolling over his debt is increasing. The 10-year Treasury resets 4.5% and Trump takes action. The 30-year Treasury or 20-year Treasury hits that 5% uh mark and Trump takes action. So the oil price is not allowed to go above $115. The 30-year Treasury 5% and the 10-year Treasury 4.5% because the 10-year Treasury breaks the mortgage market. We got mortgages above 7%. You can't refinance the individual and corporate debt um at those rates um and the the the uh government debt goes into a doom loop at those higher prices. Remember the game. Uh the US has an average cost on their debt of 3.3%. These higher bond yields means that it goes up. Um there was meant to be a regime change at the Fed but if you have inflation, you can't push down those rates. So we're not going to get the short-term rate cuts and we're getting increased rates in the long term. Um America to sustain that has to decrease the cost of their debt below the 3.3% and increase the growth rate of their economy. What's happened? The growth rate is now forecasted to be 2% and 1.7% next year. If the straight opens in the in the near term. If it goes longer term, then you will revise those expectations down and it will get worse and yields will go up and you could enter into a doom loop where effectively um the viability of the American financial system of rolling over the debt and using US Treasuries as collateral disappears, which creates a deficit blowout. Um you get a lower in tax collection um and effectively the dollar enters into a doom loop um and takes the US economy with it. I believe they want to manage um a managed recession, you know, uh a managed um transition rather than a um taking down the whole US economy with it. They want a slow death, a slow depression so that they can extract all the assets out and then they can return to what was happening before. So during the war effectively um the S&P and US markets outperform foreign markets. But every time it looks like the war will end, i.e. Trump has to come in and capitulate and taco as a result of oil prices and bond yields, the market goes back to where it was before where foreign markets outperform domestic markets. Gold goes up to weaken the dollar. DXY goes down below that $100 mark um and we return to the trend where we were before, the strategic weakening of the dollar while asset stripping and pushing capital outflows globally. BlackRock's um ETFs as a share of US versus um foreign investments. Firstly, BlackRock's up to $14 trillion managed. Aladdin's technology is now up to $25 trillion dollars, which all the central banks are using and the money managers um and also um the 55% foreign invested and so ETFs become the structure where you have less control over the dollar and the dollar becomes less important in a multipolar world for managing capital inflows for the financial industrial complex as they negotiate into this multipolar world. So, we see that every time it looks like the war's going to end, like yesterday we had a big relief rally, stock markets went up significantly um and then gold comes down, the rates come down um and oil prices come down. Then Trump makes an announcement which reverses that trend by saying we need two to three more weeks, we're decimating, we're winning, you know, um but we're probably going to going to move into now the theatrical final act which is where we have this big Hollywood movie, maybe a small ground invasion to take over one of the islands that um effectively can either lead to escalation from the IRGC where American troops get sacrificed for the Hollywood movie um in order to end this and move to the next phase. um uh but it's not a real ground invasion because real ground invasion requires 600,000 troops um and massive deaths and casualties from American troops as well as the IRGC has those million troops um and obviously it's asymmetric war because everything's protected by underground bunkers that have a missile program and a drone program. Infrastructure is being destroyed, no doubt about it. This is going to be expensive and costly. Israel will be weaker. Iran will be weaker. um but they'll be moved more into vassalization to GCC and BRICS at the end of this. Uh the Gulf countries will be weaker. They're having an economic hit, no doubt about it. um but that again pushes the GCC and BRICS closer and then American military connects it and then you have the financial industrial complex. The weaker they get, the more the negotiation between Western financial powers and Xi Jinping which is a personified by the end crescendo in in my prediction right now with the meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump. So, the further they get delays, the more negotiations need to happen. One side is set in stone. I think the Iran and the straight need to be open or a framework for how it opens um which resets the world order. We get the global reset. Now, in the meantime everything gets worse in Europe and Asia. Uh China has its large um strategic petroleum reserves. Um it has the relationships with Iran and Russia um and then American privatized oil interests vassalize up the Western Hemisphere or the Northern Hemisphere um Europe um and effectively China and BRICS become the leader of the global south. BlackRock and the financial industrial complex vassalize the West, make the K-shaped economy further, make the cost of living worse and worse and worse um and then manage capital outflows into these renegotiated financial centers and technical centers um and military centers that they're trying to negotiate across the global south and across Asia. Split the world up into multipolarity. So, that was really really clear this week. Every time people think the war's going to end, we return to that trend. As the war continues, we reverse that trend and it gets worse uh economically for everyone. Now, uh Trump gets to push the MAGA narrative that we're okay, we got oil. Meanwhile, the private credit markets are blowing up, the foreign direct investment is blowing up, uh foreign countries um are not able they have to sell their treasuries in order to facilitate their own um energy needs. You get the blowing up of the euro dollar, the petro dollar and the Japan carry trade um and all in all that leads to full vassalization of the fully privatized, securitized and financialized economies where you have a full-blown thick takeover uh and any civil unrest helps tick in that police and surveillance state. And if the war escalates out of control, then you bring the forever war model home um and make guests to profit from it. Either way, we're having ginormous concentration of power into the privatized proof of weapons network um and the multipolar world is where they have to negotiate with these vassal calls of sovereign pools of sovereign wealth capital. So, all of that is happening um and it's clear um what the trend is. As soon as the war ends um we get back to where we were but with the global reset in the middle accelerated. Um as long as the war continues, then everything gets worse in terms of concentration of power in the West to the financial industrial complex and they get more power to negotiate these shifts. But they don't want demand destruction. We will get a recession but if this carries on for months, we're in a depression. Prices of oil are like $200 um and we enter into a market which is counter for all parties. That's why the price of oil is bounded at that $115 and the yield at that 5% and 4.5%. So, without further ado, now let's get into the big picture, uh the podcast where I did an update on what this means for Bitcoin, macro and geopolitics um and this is with my good friend Archie from Bitcoin Archives um and uh this was hosted in a face-to-face podcast in London. Just before we do that, beware, you are going to have to prepare for supply chain issues. Even if this ends right now, jet fuel shortages, um there is going to be all sorts of behavioral changes um these supply chains are going to cause major major issues and you need to make sure that you're protecting your local supply chains. Um if you've got if you're spending less than you earn, you're buying into weakness, um you're you're you're doing the sovereign strategy and everything uh we've been discussing. So, now without further ado, let's move over to the podcast um and I will see you this time next week for Simon Dixon Hard Talk Live.