Is JD Vance’s Presidential Bid Over Before It’s Started?

Until fairly recently, US Vice President JD Vance was widely seen as MAGA's heir apparent with even Donald Trump saying back in August that Vance was probably the favorite to lead the Republican party and potentially become president after him. However, over the past few months, various issues, including Trump's war in Iran, the loss of MAGA ally Victor Orbin in Hungary, despite Vance's endorsement, and the Pope's clash with the Trump administration over its use of Christian rhetoric, have led to a drop in Vance's perceived odds. Moreover, according to a CNN article published on Friday, Trump has publicly mused about how Vance compares to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with an NBC report published in early March. Also claiming that in late February, Trump asked a room of 25 Republican donors who they'd prefer for 2028 between Vance and Rubio. And Rubio apparently enjoyed the most enthusiastic response. So, in this video, we'll take a look at Vance's declining popularity and whether his speculated 2028 presidential bid could be over before it's even started. If you love staying informed and want some of the best reporting on YouTube, then subscribe and ring the bell for more. Quickly though, we'll start with a recap of JD Vance's rise to the vice presidency. In July 2024 at the Republican National Convention, Trump selected JD Vance, then a senator from Ohio, as his running mate following a monthslong process where Trump constantly invited potential contenders to his Maraago resort for a series of tests. At the time, Vance was viewed as a rising star within the Republican party with his conservative right-wing politics largely aligning with MAGA positions. Vance has long been skeptical towards NATO and was one of the leading voices opposing US support for Ukraine against Russia. Moreover, his social politics was conventionally Republican with Vance opposing abortion and arguing for tougher controls on immigration. Since being selected as Trump's running mates, however, Vance has diverged from some of his long-held policy positions. For instance, Vance previously supported the breakup of big tech companies such as Meta and Google and also supported the United Auto Workers when they went on strike in 2023. Most notably, however, on the matter of Trump himself, Vance has pivoted a full 180°, having said back in 2016 that Trump was a terrible candidate and could be America's Hitler. In attempting to justify his proTrump pivot, Vance later said, "I was wrong." And that Trump had delivered for the American people. Anyway, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February 2025, a month after Trump's inauguration, JD Vance overwhelmingly won a straw poll of Republican supporters to be dubbed Trump's obvious successor. He's tried to tow the Trump administration's line, most notably on Ukraine and Greenland, while remaining tight-lipped about Trump's military operations, aware that large chunks of Republican voters shared Vance's isolationist views about no more wars. However, over the past few months, Vance's popularity has taken a hit. Bets on Poly Market are becoming less confident that Vance will be the Republican presidential nominee for 2028, with his estimated odds having steadily fallen from about 60% in November to around 40% now. While the odds of him becoming president in 2028 have also fallen from 30% in December to less than 20% now. Moreover, according to CNN data journalist Harry Eton, Vance's net approval rating has fallen by 21 points since early 2025 from plus 3 to minus 18 and now sits at the lowest level in modern history for a US vice president at this stage of a presidential term. So, what's gone wrong for the vice president? Well, we think it's down to three things. First, Vance's inability to disentangle himself from Trump. Second, his foreign policy failures. and third, his declining influence within the Trump administration itself. Let's start with his inability to disentangle himself with Trump. In short, Vance's own popularity has clearly been dragged down by Trump. You can see this if you just look at their approval ratings. Vance has broadly tracked Trump's and they've both suffered an especially steep downturn in the past month or so. This is sort of unsurprising. Vice presidents are generally seen as extensions of the incumbent administration, and for obvious political reasons, it's hard for them to separate themselves from the president. Vance has tried to distance himself from Trump's more controversial escapades. He stayed conspicuously quiet throughout both the Epstein saga and the war in Iran, for instance, but this hasn't really worked, and it looks like Trump essentially forced Vance's hand earlier this month by appointing him to head up the first round of negotiations with Iran, thus associating him directly with the war. This takes us nicely onto the second reason Vance is in trouble, his foreign policy wos. As we mentioned earlier, Vance rose to political prominence on essentially an isolationist platform. As recently as last year, for instance, Vance reiterated his support for a more isolationist America first foreign policy, saying, quote, "No more undefined missions, no more open-ended conflicts." It's obviously hard to square this rhetoric with the Trump administration's actual foreign policy, which involves not only war with Iran, but also the Trump administration's air strikes on Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, allegedly drug boats in the Caribbean, Syria, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Ecuador. Despite Vance's desperate efforts to distance himself from Trump's decisions on military action, having said rather diplomatically in early March that Trump was quote philosophically a little bit different from me, polling suggests he hasn't managed to escape the public backlash. Moreover, Vance seems to have something of a reverse Midas touch when it comes to interfering in other countries elections, which is again something this administration seems conspicuously keen on. The first was the crushing defeat earlier this month of Victor Orban, a MAGA ally and Hungary's prime minister of 16 years, despite Vance visiting Budapest days before the election and urging Hungarians to stand with Victor Orban. Last week, Vance said he was sad about the result, but defended his involvement, saying it was quote the right thing to do to stand behind a person who had stood by us for a very long time. Even if Vance took it well, this was still an embarrassing defeat for the Trump administration and for Vance personally, given that it made Vance look like the poison chalice that finished Orban off. On top of this, the Trump administration's recent clash with the Pope has put Vance, a converted Catholic, in a tough spot, and he hit the headlines last week when he rather brashly suggested the Vatican quote stick to matters of morality before apparently U-turning on Sunday. Finally, the third problem for Vance is his apparent declining influence within the Trump administration itself. It's clear that whatever their disagreements behind closed doors, Vance was unable to prevent Trump from launching an unprovoked and unnecessary war on Iran. And the intervention in Venezuela, as well as the attention being directed towards Cuba, suggests that Secretary of State Marco Rubio currently enjoys more sway within the administration. Ultimately, it wouldn't be at all surprising if, given both Trump's history of pitting his vice presidential candidates against each other in 2024 and his reality TV show background on The Apprentice, Trump is gearing up for a Vance versus Rubio battle ahead of 2028. Keeping up to date with stories like these and doing independent journalism requires a lot of constant research across all corners of the internet and even sometimes calls for international travel. But it's not uncommon that we come across roadblocks. 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