If You Hold BTC, You Need To Watch This Now | Lawrence Lepard

paper Bitcoin. So that demand for the Bitcoin that they had did not get reflected in the marketplace because he just created a synthetic paper obligation. So to those who say, you know, there's no such thing as paper Bitcoin and Bitcoin can't be can't be manipulated, I say There is definitely paper Bitcoin. Um, however, there's not nearly as much paper Bitcoin as there is paper gold. They've had 50 years to perfect the paper gold market. They've had 15 years to perfect the paper Bitcoin market. And the other thing I would say it's a really important thing to understand is that gold has never gone up 5x in 10 months as it did as Bitcoin did from October of 2020 to you know the following May or June. So you know actually less than 10 months like seven months. >> Bitcoin is entering a decisive phase of institutional adoption where capital regulation and scarcity dynamics are converging to reshape its long-term valuation narrative. As market structure strengthens and liquidity deepens, attention is shifting toward whether this breakout marks the beginning of a broader monetary transition. Lawrence Leopard, an American investment manager and sound money advocate, argues that gold and Bitcoin remain in early stages of global adoption with Bitcoin positioned for stronger long-term performance versus gold. He notes gold remains underowned with portfolio allocations below 4% reflecting limited institutional exposure despite price action. He suggests gold is structurally undervalued after years of financial suppression. While Bitcoin is even earlier in its adoption curve, offering greater monetization potential as awareness expands. Sovereign participation continues to explain gold's relative strength as central banks are more familiar with gold than Bitcoin, leaving crypto adoption at the state level limited to select regions. However, capital rotation is expected as gold completes its revaluation phase, shifting toward Bitcoin as a digital monetary alternative. Market structure strengthens with Bitcoin breaking resistance above $75,000 in midappril 2026 supported by ETF inflows, institutional accumulation and supply constraints. Corporate Treasury holdings exceeding 300,000 BTC reinforce demand while regulatory clarity accelerates large-scale participation. Convergence of macro uncertainty and structured inflows positions Bitcoin in a breakout phase of adoption and price discovery. Drop your thoughts in the comments. Share this with fellow investors and subscribe for more crypto market insights. >> Bitcoin, I think, is going to go further, faster, you know, be be a better performer. But you've got to remember, I mean, you know, it's funny. I mean, we're early in the gold world. We're super early in the Bitcoin world. I mean, remember that still, you know, the allocations, the portfolio allocations to gold, you know, across the spectrum, and this this will be in my quarterly report, which should be out tomorrow, Friday. It's still like under 4%. I mean, nobody really owns gold. Everyone thinks, "Oh, gold went up a lot. You know, it's a bubble. It's it's a time to sell gold." I mean, no, you know, we gold has been so suppressed for 20 plus years that even after it goes up a lot, it's still cheap. And if gold is cheap, Bitcoin is even cheaper. And but the the the reason gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the last year or two, last year and a half I would say, is because at the sovereign level that you know they there very few sovereigns who really understand Bitcoin. I mean the UAE does and I think Russia does. I don't think China fully does but um you know there aren't sovereign banks and and investment or I mean you know investment funds buying Bitcoin. There are a few small ones but but there are no major ones whereas there are plenty of sovereigns and and central banks that are buying gold and that continues and persists. So so gold is kind of the first choice as the money fails. But you know once once gold has done its thing, Bitcoin's going to come racing by because everyone's going to kind of come to the conclusion that Bitcoin is a digital form of gold which it is. And you know there are all kinds of great use cases. I mean, like one of the really interesting ones, I'm sure you saw it and I noticed it as well, was, you know, if Iran is going to start charging a toll for oil to go through the straight of Hormuz, and they said, "Hey, yeah, we're going to do that. And by the way, the payment's going to be required in Bitcoin." And, you know, that's interesting. You know, they can't obviously they can't collect gold. What are you going to do? Run run run a bunch of coins or a bar of gold out for every ship you send through? But in the past, you could I would have thought, well, they'll use stable coins. But then I did some digging and some research and I discovered, you know what, the US has really they they've got their arms around Tether and Circle and they've now been able to sanction stable coins. And you know, the stable coin market grew and came into existence primarily because we threw these countries like um Russia and Iran off off the Swift network so they couldn't move money easily. We weaponized the dollar. Well, okay, that that was what led to stable coins. Well, as it turns out, I in my research, I discovered that about $4 billion of stable coins have been seized. So, you know, the Iranians aren't stupid. Um, and if if they want to get paid, they're they're going to get paid in something that the Western, you know, financial system can't grab. And the only two things that constitute that that fit that model, you know, as sovereign money that's independent from, you know, the system are gold and Bitcoin. And obviously, gold's clunky. Bitcoin's, you know, as easy as a 10-minute transaction. So, so I thought that was a very interesting development. >> Bitcoin's real battle isn't just price. It's the hidden layer of leverage and paper exposure shaping every major market move. Lawrence Leopard highlights a key structural divide in financial markets between the underlying asset and the lay derivatives built upon it. A dynamic that is increasingly relevant in Bitcoin markets. He explains that true ownership of Bitcoin is defined by holding private keys, which represents direct control over the asset, while derivative instruments allow exposure without onchain settlement, creating synthetic positions that may not immediately translate into spot market demand. This separation can distort price discovery as trading activity shifts into off-market contracts rather than actual Bitcoin accumulation. He further notes that paper Bitcoin structures can temporarily inflate perceived supply similar to traditional financial systems where leverage expands exposure beyond real assets. Historical failures of centralized exchanges illustrate the risk where users believed they held Bitcoin but were instead exposed to unsecured liabilities. Although the Bitcoin derivatives market remains smaller than gold's highly developed paper system, its growth introduces new layers of leverage and short positioning that can influence short-term price action. These leverage structures can create artificial selling pressure, but they must eventually be closed, often triggering sharp upside moves. At the same time, volatility remains a defining feature of Bitcoin with major draw downs historically exceeding 70% to 80%, reinforcing both opportunity and risk. Alongside price swings, custodial failure risk persists where investors may lose access to holdings despite market ownership exposure. Let's get back to the interview. what happens in in any in any given market, you know, there's actually the physical um well in Bitcoin is not physical, but there's you effectively the physical. I mean, they're the keys and the coins, and that means you own title to those coins. Um and then on top of that, you know, people can create a derivative, which is to say, I can say, "Hey, Joe, I'm going to sell you a Bitcoin for $75,000." And you can say, "Fine, I'll send you $75,000." And now Larry owes Joe one Bitcoin. And so your, you know, your your demand for Bitcoin, your $75,000 that you wanted to spend to buy a Bitcoin, rather than going into the market with a broker and buying the actual Bitcoin, you bought a Bitcoin derivative from me. And now I owe you one Bitcoin. But let's say I don't have that Bitcoin. So effectively, your demand did not reflect in the price in the marketplace. It just reflected in Joe and Larry trade. And so that's that's a paper transaction without the underlying physical backing it meaning and it so in effect it's kind of a short because at some point in time I've got to go buy that Bitcoin and deliver it to you but I don't have it today. And we saw you know like when Sam Beckman Freed failed you know we saw on the FTX balance sheet he claimed he had a lot of you know he had sold Bitcoin to his customers paper Bitcoin. There were people who had FTX accounts who thought they own Bitcoin but he didn't have any Bitcoin. So he basically just sold them paper bitcoin. So that demand for the bitcoin that they had did not get reflected in the marketplace because he just created a synthetic paper obligation. So to those who say, you know, there's no such thing as paper bitcoin and bitcoin can't be can't be manipulated, I say There is definitely paper bitcoin. Um, however, there's not nearly as much paper bitcoin as there is paper gold. They've had 50 years to perfect the paper gold market. They've had 15 years to perfect the paper bitcoin market. And the other thing I would say, it's a really important thing to understand is that gold has never gone up 5x in 10 months as it did as Bitcoin did from October of 2020 to, you know, the following May or June. So, you know, less than 10 months, like 7 months. So, um, you know, and that's that's kind of a rip your face off sort of move if you're short, you know, the paper. Um, you know, a big year for gold is up 20 30%, there were a couple years were up 50%. So um you know and and the powers that be at the BIS and the federal at the Federal Reserve and you know all the central banks I mean they have the ability to absorb that kind of loss. They also have a printer to fill in the holes. Um you know with respect to the paper Bitcoin um basically you know the perpetual futures market I haven't checked it recently but it's gotten to be fairly good size a lot bigger than it was four or five years ago but still a fraction of the total outstanding trading on on you know in any given day. not a fraction. It's it's but it's not as big as the trading on any given day and it's not as big as the float that's out there. So So it's clearly creating some supply, some artificial supply, but the people who sold it short, who basically sold a contract to somebody who wanted to buy Bitcoin, um you know, they're going to have to cover those shorts at some point. They're going to get their face ripped off if this thing starts moving quickly. and and in this instant transaction kind of world um you know they've got all these kinds of algorithms and other things set up such such that once it starts to move and move hard you know they're going to come in in a big way to unwind those positions and that's that's how and why we get these huge amplitude swings. I mean, you know, one of the things I mean, there's there's some great documentation if you go back in the 70s when the gold wars were occurring and, you know, the London gold pool was taking place, there were some things written by Kissinger and others who basically said, you know, look, if we make this gold price so volatile, people won't want to buy it because it'd be just too scary to buy it if it has these big ups and downs. And boy, does that ring true with Bitcoin as well, right? Um, and so, you know, there's there's an argument that that, you know, the other side of our trade likes the fact that they can hold it down and then let it rip and then hold it down and let it rip that the volatility and that does scare a lot of people away. I mean, I think when I try to convince people to buy Bitcoin probably other than well, it's crypto and it's FTX and you know, once you get them through that, then you have to get them through you do understand this thing could go down 50%. Market structure in Bitcoin continues to evolve through a layered system of spot ownership and derivative exposure where real asset control depends on private key custody while synthetic instruments expand trading activity beyond onchain settlement. This separation can weaken immediate price discovery as significant demand is absorbed through off-market contracts rather than direct Bitcoin accumulation. At the same time, leverage within futures and perpetual markets introduces temporary distortions in supply and demand dynamics, often amplifying volatility in both directions. Historical precedent from centralized platforms shows how perceived ownership can diverge from actual backing, reinforcing counterparty and custodial risks within digital asset ecosystems. Despite these complexities, tightening supply conditions, institutional inflows, and improving regulatory frameworks continue to strengthen long-term positioning, market cycles are increasingly shaped by the interaction between real Bitcoin accumulation and leveraged positioning where forced unwinds can accelerate sharp price expansions. Over time, structural adoption trends remain tied to the gradual shift from synthetic exposure toward direct onchain ownership. What do you think drives Bitcoin more right now? Real onchain buying or hidden leverage in derivatives markets? Share your view in the comments and don't forget to subscribe and share for more crypto insights.