Will America invade Cuba?

Fresh off the heels of the Iran war and the intervention in Venezuela, Cuba increasingly appears to be next. Earlier this month, Donald Trump hinted as much, saying, "We may stop by Cuba after we're finished with this." That wasn't an isolated comment. In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly suggested that Cuba will be next on the agenda, but it's not clear what the plan is. In fact, Trump's approach thus far has been unpredictable, and that may be part of a strategy to keep the Cubans guessing. What is clear, however, is that Trump needs a political win. Much of his support base has grown uneasy over the Iran conflict, and some within the executive office see Cuba as a relatively easy victory that could help rally the president's support base. A Miami Herald poll published on April 16th found that 79% of Cubans and Cubanameans in South Florida support some form of US military intervention in Cuba. But unlike the operation against Maduro, where the US Navy spent months building up forces around Venezuela, any action against Cuba could be launched directly from bases inside the United States. That means military intervention in Cuba could come about much more suddenly with little warning. Suppose that happens, the operation could take different forms. It could be a quick raid to capture senior leaders such as Diaz Canel or a larger air campaign targeting key military and government sites. In the most extreme scenario, the US could launch a full invasion to remove the Cuban government and replace it with one more subservient to Washington, though that remains unlikely. Either way, regime change in Cuba appears to be in the works. Trump sees Cuba as an opportunity to regain political momentum at home, while Rubio could use the issue to position himself for higher office. That's how these things go. Some conflicts begin at the border. Others begin at the polling numbers. 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The offer is only available to new players for the next 30 days, so get started sooner rather than later. Ever since Fidel Castro took power in Havana in 1959, every American president has struggled with the question of what to do about Cuba. In the decades following the communist takeover, the country has had just two other leaders. Fidel's brother Raul, who stepped down in 2018, and his successor, Diaz Canel, who now serves as the first secretary of the Communist Party. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, US policy toward Cuba flip-fpped between escalation and engagement. President Clinton signed the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, which strengthened the US Embargo and set stringent conditions for the removal of sanctions. President Obama, by contrast, believed that the policy of isolating Cuba had failed. He kept the trade embargo intact, but restored diplomatic relations with Havana, relaxed economic sanctions, and removed Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Immediately thereafter, the Cubans launched moderate economic reforms. They permitted more small private businesses, loosened rules on foreign investment, and downsized the state's payroll. Yet, despite the optimism, it quickly became clear that Havana was not prepared for genuine economic change. Hardliners in the Cuban government belittled Obama's policy as a Trojan horse that would bring unwelcome political change and unleash economic forces that Havana could not control. Ultimately, the reforms simply fell short of expectations. So, by the time Trump entered the White House in 2017, there was little to stop him from rolling back Obama's normalization efforts. Sure enough, a few months into his first term, Trump enacted hundreds of measures, tightening sanctions against Cuba, including restrictions on flights, remittances, and travel to the country. Cuba's economy has remained in decline ever since. During his second term, in January 2026, to be precise, Trump amped up his maximum pressure campaign against Cuba. It was part of a broader strategy to assert American primacy in the Western Hemisphere and limit the influence of China and Russia. The move came just after the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, who happened to be a key ally of Cuba. Later that month, Trump signed an executive order that deemed Cuba an extraordinary threat to US national security. That same document provides a legal framework for slapping 30% tariffs on any country that supplies oil to Cuba. Shortly afterward, fuel tankers turned around and suppliers stop delivering to the island. Havana is now closer to an outright blockade than at any point since the 1962 missile crisis, and the fuel shortage is undermining the state's ability to provide basic services. For reference, Cuba needs about 100,000 barrels of oil per day to sustain its civil service, but it produces only 40,000. The rest comes from abroad. This year, Cuba has so far received an 85,000 barrel shipment from Mexico on January 9th, followed by another 100,000 barrel delivery from Russia on March 30th. But beyond that, there has been little additional supply in 2026. Almost no oil is reaching Cuba anymore. Not from Venezuela, Mexico, Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Russia, or virtually anywhere else. As a result, basic services are now collapsing in real time, and the country is going through its worst economic crisis since the 1990s. Gasoline and medicine are in short supply. Power outages have become routine. Food prices have jumped and mosquito transmitted disease outbreaks have overwhelmed the public health system. Many of these complications had been building for years. But Trump's maximum pressure campaign has exacerbated the crisis. There are now lines at gas stations that stretch for hours. Schools are suspending classes. Hospitals are cancelling surgeries. And waste is piling up on the streets since most garbage trucks are out of service. With pressure mounting on multiple fronts, Havana has little room left to maneuver. Trump is likely sensing as much. In Washington, there is a growing belief that the Cuban state is at its most vulnerable point in decades, and the White House appears determined to exploit that opening and coers Havana toward political change. Against that backdrop, the Pentagon is now drawing up a range of military options for possible action against Cuba. Quietly, but steadily, the situation is beginning to drift toward something far more dangerous. In spite of Trump's belligerent rhetoric, diplomatic channels remain open. In April, a US State Department delegation visited Havana, making it the first time a US government aircraft had landed in Cuba since the short-lived re-engagement under the Obama administration. The Americans brought with them a laundry list of demands, including compensation for American residents and corporations whose assets were confiscated after the 1959 revolution, the release of political prisoners, and greater political freedoms for the Cuban population. That first point, compensation for lost property, is really at the heart of the issue, though, particularly among the Cuban diaspora in the United States. Delivering some form of compensation would go a long way toward securing a political win in South Florida ahead of the midterm elections in November. Of course, a deal with Cuba would also create economic prospects for American companies, most immediately through the opening of the island's tourism sector, and in the longer term, the potential for broader investment. But for Trump, Cuba is likely as much a domestic issue as it is a foreign policy one. That said, the compensation claim could easily derail any broader agreement. According to the Assembly of the Cuban Resistance, which is an anti-government organization operating both inside and outside the country, the total claim amounts to roughly 9 to10 billion. Given Cuba's worsening economic conditions, Havana is in no position to pay such a fee. If the Cuban leadership refuses to meet US demands or if talks collapse altogether, the Pentagon may opt for military intervention. At first, the campaign would likely remain indirect. The US could increase surveillance operations around Cuba, deploy warships near the island, and carry out military drills across the Caribbean in an effort to pressure Havana into concessions. But if those measures fail to produce results, the Pentagon could escalate by launching air strikes against military infrastructure and government facilities, followed by special operations raids targeting senior officials. But even if no military action is taken, the threat of it must remain at an all-time high. The Cubans are notorious for their slow diplomacy and will only concede if they believe that their fate, properties, and even lives are in real danger. If the US delegation shows up to the talks without the looming threat of military intervention, the negotiations will outlast Trump's presidency with little to show for it. And so, the Pentagon must flex its muscles while diplomats do their thing. In Washington, policymakers may be hoping for a repeat of the Maduro operation, but that may not be an option in this case. After nearly 7 decades of communist rule, there is no person within the Cuban system capable of delivering meaningful change to the country. No one with a consistent track record of standing for economic liberalization, not even in a modest way. So even if Diaz Canel were forced into exile, it remains unclear whether a more cooperative alternative is waiting to take his place. On the other hand, Cuba has few alternatives left. Without oil, conditions will continue to deteriorate until they become unbearable, potentially triggering another wave of anti-government protests. Recognizing the risk, Cuba has begun to acquies to some of the US demands. In March, it introduced new regulations allowing expatriots to own businesses in the country. And in April, it released 2,000 political prisoners. But so far, those concessions have done little to appease the White House. Part of the reason is that the pressure campaign against Cuba may no longer be driven solely by strategic calculations. After all, Cuba is hardly the sort of threat that normally warrants this kind of response. You see, unlike Venezuela, it doesn't possess vast oil reserves. And unlike Iran, it has no nuclear weapons program. And while Trump may be drawn to the idea of resolving a problem that has frustrated 12 presidents before him, the driving force behind the US policy may in fact be Secretary of State Marco Rubio. As the son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio has long viewed Cuba not just as a geopolitical issue, but as a deeply personal one. For years, he argued for stronger US efforts to topple the Cuban government. He was also one of the strongest critics of Obama's normalization attempt and has since become the face of this administration's posture toward Latin America. Rubio is one of the few people in Washington who still sees Cuba as a priority for the United States. More importantly, he has the political credibility to sell a deal not only on Capitol Hill and in Miami, but potentially even in Havana. That makes him both a threat and an opportunity to the Cuban government. He's an opportunity because he has hinted at a more gradual approach, saying that change in Cuba doesn't have to happen all at once because everyone is mature and realistic. In practice, that could mean introducing reforms slowly while keeping much of the existing system intact. But such an arrangement would be deeply controversial. Many Cuban exiles, anti-government groups, and members of Congress would see it as legitimizing the communist government in Havana, especially since the Helms Burton Act ties the removal of the embargo to conditions such as free elections and the dismantling of Cuba's state security apparatus. Rubio, however, may be the only person in America with even a remote chance of navigating that massive political maze. At times, a breakthrough abroad depends on whether the politics at home allow it. Remember to play Supremacy World War III for free on PC or mobile. Use the link in the description to claim the elite rail gun bonus available for the next 30 days. I've been your host Shervan from Caspian Report. If you enjoy these videos, consider supporting the channel on Patreon and click the bell icon so the next one doesn't slip past you. Thank you for your time and s